Against Vegas opening spreads last week, the GRT Statsy Preview Machine went 24-19 (55.81%) overall, 7-6 (53.85%) in Category 2, and 3-4 (42.86%) in Category 3. For the season, the SPM is now 113-116 (49.34%) in Category 1, 45-49 (47.87%) in Category 2, and 23-24 (48.94%) in Category 3.
Using the same spreads as SP+, the SPM was 21-20 (51.22%) overall for the week.
For the sake of comparison, SP+ was 20-21-2 (48.78%) officially, using its own spreads. (That should make it 116-110-4 (51.33%) for the season.) It did better against our spreads: 25-18 (58.14%).
Below are the GRT Statsy Preview Machine’s picks for Week 10 of the 2020 college football season. As always, if you’re wondering why we do this or what I mean when I refer to “confidence” and when I place game predictions into different categories, check out this post. Also, in case it’s not perfectly clear from the above results, spreads matter.
GRT SPM 2020 Week 10 Picks
Below are the machine’s picks this week. NOTE: This is the first week for the Pac-12 and the MAC, and the SPM is not currently doing well in the first couple of weeks of a team’s season. When the Big 10 first started up, the SPM whiffed on all but one game. Because of that, I’d avoid putting any confidence whatsoever in any of the Pac-12 or MAC games.
| Away | Home | Favorite | Spread | SPM Favorite | SPM Spread | Favorite... |
| Michigan State | Iowa | Iowa | -7 | Iowa | -7 | Doesn't Cover |
| Texas A&M | South Carolina | Texas A&M | -8 | Texas A&M | -7.8 | Doesn't Cover |
| Tennessee | Arkansas | Tennessee | -1 | Tennessee | -0.5 | Doesn't Cover |
| UTSA | Rice | Rice | -3.5 | Rice | -4.3 | Covers |
| Eastern Michigan | Kent State | Kent State | -4.5 | Kent State | -3.6 | Doesn't Cover |
| Miami (Florida) | NC State | Miami (Florida) | -8.5 | Miami (Florida) | -7.2 | Doesn't Cover |
| Tulane | East Carolina | Tulane | -2.5 | Tulane | -4 | Covers |
| Oklahoma State | Kansas State | Oklahoma State | -9.5 | Oklahoma State | -8 | Doesn't Cover |
| Washington State | Oregon State | Washington State | -3 | Washington State | -4.7 | Covers |
| Vanderbilt | Mississippi State | Mississippi State | -16 | Mississippi State | -14.2 | Doesn't Cover |
| Western Kentucky | Florida Atlantic | Florida Atlantic | -11.5 | Florida Atlantic | -9.7 | Doesn't Cover |
| Troy | Georgia Southern | Georgia Southern | -1 | Troy | -0.9 | Doesn't cover |
| Fresno State | UNLV | Fresno State | -13.5 | Fresno State | -11.6 | Doesn't Cover |
| Michigan | Indiana | Michigan | -3.5 | Michigan | -1.5 | Doesn't Cover |
| Appalachian State | Texas State | Appalachian State | -17 | Appalachian State | -20 | Covers |
| Louisville | Virginia | Virginia | -1 | Louisville | -2.1 | Doesn't cover |
| Air Force | Army | Army | -7 | Army | -10.6 | Covers |
| San Jose State | San Diego State | San Diego State | -10 | San Diego State | -6 | Doesn't Cover |
| SMU | Temple | SMU | -14 | SMU | -18 | Covers |
| Maryland | Penn State | Penn State | -24.5 | Penn State | -20.3 | Doesn't Cover |
| North Carolina | Duke | North Carolina | -9 | North Carolina | -13.3 | Covers |
| Charlotte | Middle Tennessee | Charlotte | -5 | Charlotte | -0.6 | Doesn't Cover |
| Buffalo | Northern Illinois | Buffalo | -8 | Buffalo | -12.5 | Covers |
| Arkansas State | Louisiana | Louisiana | -13 | Louisiana | -17.7 | Covers |
| Kansas | Oklahoma | Oklahoma | -37 | Oklahoma | -41.8 | Covers |
| New Mexico | Hawai'i | Hawai'i | -16 | Hawai'i | -10.9 | Doesn't Cover |
| Louisiana-Monroe | Georgia State | Georgia State | -19.5 | Georgia State | -25.6 | Covers |
| Washington | California | Washington | -3.5 | Washington | -9.8 | Covers |
| Arizona State | USC | USC | -7.5 | USC | -1.1 | Doesn't Cover |
| South Alabama | Coastal Carolina | Coastal Carolina | -15.5 | Coastal Carolina | -22 | Covers |
| South Florida | Memphis | Memphis | -17.5 | Memphis | -24.1 | Covers |
| Texas Tech | TCU | TCU | -9.5 | TCU | -2.6 | Doesn't Cover |
| Pittsburgh | Florida State | Pittsburgh | -2.5 | Pittsburgh | -9.4 | Covers |
| Boston College | Syracuse | Boston College | -1 | Boston College | -8.7 | Covers |
| Minnesota | Illinois | Minnesota | -7.5 | Illinois | -0.5 | Doesn't cover |
| Clemson | Notre Dame | Clemson | -7.5 | Notre Dame | -1.1 | Doesn't cover |
| Florida | Georgia | Georgia | -2.5 | Georgia | -11.7 | Covers |
| Baylor | Iowa State | Iowa State | -12.5 | Iowa State | -3 | Doesn't Cover |
| Massachusetts | Marshall | Marshall | -43.3 | Marshall | -53 | Covers |
| Bowling Green | Toledo | Toledo | -18 | Toledo | -7.8 | Doesn't Cover |
| Louisiana Tech | North Texas | North Texas | -2 | Louisiana Tech | -8.4 | Doesn't cover |
| Ball State | Miami (Ohio) | Miami (Ohio) | -3 | Ball State | -8.2 | Doesn't cover |
| Houston | Cincinnati | Cincinnati | -10.5 | Cincinnati | -21.8 | Covers |
| West Virginia | Texas | Texas | -7 | West Virginia | -6 | Doesn't cover |
| UCLA | Colorado | UCLA | -6 | UCLA | -19.1 | Covers |
| Ohio | Central Michigan | Ohio | -2.5 | Ohio | -16.9 | Covers |
| Utah State | Nevada | Nevada | -13.5 | Nevada | -28.6 | Covers |
| Liberty | Virginia Tech | Virginia Tech | -16 | Virginia Tech | -0.6 | Doesn't Cover |
| Stanford | Oregon | Oregon | -9 | Oregon | -25.4 | Covers |
| Wyoming | Colorado State | Wyoming | -5.5 | Wyoming | -22.4 | Covers |
| Tulsa | Navy | Tulsa | -9 | Tulsa | -26.5 | Covers |
| BYU | Boise State | BYU | -3 | BYU | -21.4 | Covers |
| Western Michigan | Akron | Western Michigan | -17 | Western Michigan | -37.2 | Covers |
| Arizona | Utah | Utah | -13.5 | Utah | -34.5 | Covers |
| Rutgers | Ohio State | Ohio State | -37 | Ohio State | -15.3 | Doesn't Cover |
| Nebraska | Northwestern | Northwestern | -4 | Northwestern | -26.4 | Covers |
There are nine Category 3 games that the SPM likes particularly well this week, although many of them are either Pac-10 or MAC games that are likely to be wrong. I wouldn’t beat my chest about anything this week, to be honest.
What are you favorite games this week?