| GRT's SPM | ||||
| Our spreads (opening) | SP+ spreads (mid-week) | |||
| Cat. 1 (all games) | Cat. 2 | Cat. 3 | All games | |
| Week 11 | 22-21 (51.16%) | 12-2 (85.71%) | 5-0 (100%) | 23-20 (53.49%) |
| Week 12 | 18-23 (43.90%) | 5-7 (41.67%) | 4-2 (66.67%) | 20-21 (48.78%) |
| Week 13 | 23-20 (53.49%) | 7-5 (58.33%) | 4-3 (57.14%) | 21-21 (50%) |
| Week 14 | 27-18 (60%) | 12-5 (70.59%) | 7-4 (63.64%) | 27-18 (60%) |
| Week 15 | 22-15 (59.46%) | 8-4 (66.67%) | 8-2 (80%) | 24-13 (64.86%) |
| Season | 261-225 (53.70%) | 100-78 (56.18%) | 55-39 (58.51%) | |
| SP+ | ||||
| Our spreads (opening) | Official results | |||
| Week 11 | 21-22 (48.84%) | 18-24-1 (43%) | ||
| Week 12 | 23-18 (56.10%) | 25-16 (61%) | ||
| Week 13 | 22-21 (51.16%) | 18-26 (41%) | ||
| Week 14 | 20-25 (44.44%) | 20-25 (44%) | ||
| Week 15 | 24-13 (64.86%) | 18-18-1 (50%) | ||
| Season | 270-216 (55.56%) | 247-235-7 (51.2%) |
Another good week for the ol’ GRT Statsy Preview Machine. It went 22-15 (59.46%) overall, 8-4 (66.67%) in Category 2, and 8-2 (80%) in Category 3. For the season, the Machine is now 261-225 (53.70%) in Category 1, 100-78 (56.18%) in Category 2, and 55-39 (58.51%) in Category 3.
Of the six “Category 4” games, one was canceled, and the other five went 5-0 (100%), making the results for the six weeks we’ve been tracking them 19-3 (86.36%).
Using the same spreads as SP+, the Machine was 24-13 (64.86%) overall for the week.
SP+ went 18-18-1 (50%) officially, using its own mid-week spreads. For the season, SP+ is 247-235-7 (51.2%). It did better this week against the opening spreads we use (24-13, 64.86%) and is now 270-216 (55.56%) for the season against those spreads.
Below are the GRT Statsy Preview Machine’s picks for Week 16 of the 2020 college football season. As always, if you’re wondering why we do this or what I mean when I refer to “confidence” and when I place game predictions into different categories, check out this post. Also, in case it’s not perfectly clear from the above results, spreads matter.
GRT SPM 2020 Week 16 Picks
Ignore the Home and Away column headings this week, as there are several neutral site games. I’ve accounted for them in the calculations, but haven’t denoted them in the table.
| Away | Home | Favorite | Spread | SPM Favorite | SPM Spread | Favorite... |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louisiana-Monroe | Troy | Troy | -25 | Troy | -25.3 | Covers |
| Arizona | California | California | -13.5 | California | -13.9 | Covers |
| Washington | USC | USC | -6 | USC | -7.1 | Covers |
| Oklahoma | Iowa State | Oklahoma | -5.5 | Oklahoma | -3.9 | Doesn't Cover |
| Tulsa | Cincinnati | Cincinnati | -15 | Cincinnati | -16.6 | Covers |
| Florida State | Wake Forest | Wake Forest | -9.5 | Wake Forest | -12.2 | Covers |
| Louisiana-Lafayette | Coastal Carolina | Coastal Carolina | -4 | Coastal Carolina | -0.7 | Doesn't Cover |
| Texas A&M | Tennessee | Texas A&M | -12.5 | Texas A&M | -16.2 | Covers |
| Air Force | Army | Air Force | -0.5 | Air Force | -4.3 | Covers |
| Stanford | UCLA | UCLA | -5.5 | UCLA | -9.3 | Covers |
| Arizona State | Oregon State | Arizona State | -8.5 | Arizona State | -12.8 | Covers |
| Ball State | Buffalo | Buffalo | -12 | Buffalo | -16.6 | Covers |
| Missouri | Mississippi State | Missouri | -2 | Missouri | -7.3 | Covers |
| Alabama | Florida | Alabama | -15.5 | Alabama | -9.8 | Doesn't Cover |
| Washington State | Utah | Utah | -9.5 | Utah | -15.9 | Covers |
| Michigan State | Maryland | Maryland | -1 | Maryland | -8.7 | Covers |
| Boise State | San Jose State | Boise State | -8 | San Jose State | -0.2 | Doesn't cover |
| Mississippi | LSU | LSU | -2 | LSU | -10.6 | Covers |
| Nebraska | Rutgers | Nebraska | -4.5 | Rutgers | -4.4 | Doesn't cover |
| Michigan | Iowa | Iowa | -13.5 | Iowa | -23 | Covers |
| UAB | Marshall | Marshall | -5.5 | Marshall | -16.1 | Covers |
| Vanderbilt | Georgia | Georgia | -37 | Georgia | -26.4 | Doesn't Cover |
| Clemson | Notre Dame | Clemson | -10 | Notre Dame | -1.2 | Doesn't cover |
| Oregon | Colorado | Oregon | -9 | Colorado | -3.2 | Doesn't cover |
| Minnesota | Wisconsin | Wisconsin | -11.5 | Wisconsin | -24.9 | Covers |
| Northwestern | Ohio State | Ohio State | -21 | Ohio State | -3.5 | Doesn't Cover |
| Illinois | Penn State | Penn State | -14.5 | Illinois | -6 | Doesn't cover |
This week, there are only six Category 3 games, those that the GRT Statsy Preview Machine likes particularly well. Of those, only two make the Category 4 cut because they also agree with SP+:
- Clemson vs. Notre Dame (Notre Dame +10)
- Minnesota at Wisconsin (Wisconsin -11.5)
Purdue +10.5 against Indiana was also a Cat 4 game, but it’s already been canceled. Of the other two, Wisconsin -11.5 is super close according to SP+, and there is good reason to be wary of the Notre Dame +10 pick as well. So both of the remaining picks make me nervous.