Here are the results from last week:
| GRT's SPM | ||||
| Our spreads | SP+ spreads | |||
| Cat. 1 (all games) | Cat. 2 | Cat. 3 | All games | |
| Week 11 | 22-21 (51.16%) | 12-2 (85.71%) | 5-0 (100%) | 23-20 (53.49%) |
| Season | 171-149 (53.44%) | 68-57 (54.40%) | 32-28 (53.33%) | |
| SP+ | ||||
| Our spreads | Official results | |||
| Week 11 | 21-22 (48.84%) | 18-24-1 (43%) | ||
| Season | 181-139 (56.56%) | 165-150-6 (52.3%) |
Against Vegas opening spreads last week, the GRT Statsy Preview Machine held to form, hitting just over 50% overall but nailing the high-confidence games and the sweet spot. The actual numbers: 22-21 (51.16%) overall, 12-2 (85.71%) in Category 2, and 5-0 (100%) in Category 3. For the season, the SPM is now 171-149 (53.44%) in Category 1, 68-57 (54.40%) in Category 2, and 32-28 (53.33%) in Category 3.
Using the same spreads as SP+, the SPM was 23-20 (53.49%) overall for the week.
For the sake of comparison, SP+ was 18-24-1 (43%) officially, using its own spreads. For the season, it is 165-150-6 (52.3%). Against our spreads, it was 21-22 (48.84%) for the week and is 181-139 (56.56%) for the season.
Below are the GRT Statsy Preview Machine’s picks for Week 12 of the 2020 college football season. As always, if you’re wondering why we do this or what I mean when I refer to “confidence” and when I place game predictions into different categories, check out this post. Also, in case it’s not perfectly clear from the above results, spreads matter.
GRT SPM 2020 Week 12 Picks
| Away | Home | Favorite | Spread | SPM Favorite | SPM Spread | Favorite... |
| Clemson | Florida State | Clemson | -32 | Clemson | -31.8 | Doesn't Cover |
| Wisconsin | Northwestern | Wisconsin | -7 | Wisconsin | -7.2 | Covers |
| Appalachian State | Coastal Carolina | Coastal Carolina | -4.5 | Coastal Carolina | -4.2 | Doesn't Cover |
| Northern Illinois | Ball State | Ball State | -10.5 | Ball State | -9.9 | Doesn't Cover |
| Arkansas State | Texas State | Arkansas State | -6 | Arkansas State | -6.7 | Covers |
| Georgia Southern | Army | Army | -5 | Army | -5.8 | Covers |
| Mississippi State | Georgia | Georgia | -22.5 | Georgia | -21.7 | Doesn't Cover |
| Arizona | Washington | Washington | -11.5 | Washington | -10.5 | Doesn't Cover |
| Charlotte | Marshall | Marshall | -21.5 | Marshall | -20.2 | Doesn't Cover |
| Louisiana-Monroe | Louisiana Tech | Louisiana Tech | -16 | Louisiana Tech | -17.7 | Covers |
| Stephen F. Austin | Memphis | Memphis | -28.5 | Memphis | -26.8 | Doesn't Cover |
| Missouri | South Carolina | Missouri | -3.5 | Missouri | -1.6 | Doesn't Cover |
| Central Arkansas | Louisiana-Lafayette | Louisiana-Lafayette | -24.5 | Louisiana-Lafayette | -22.2 | Doesn't Cover |
| Arizona State | Colorado | Arizona State | -2.5 | Arizona State | -0.1 | Doesn't Cover |
| Utah State | Wyoming | Wyoming | -17.5 | Wyoming | -20 | Covers |
| Kentucky | Alabama | Alabama | -29.5 | Alabama | -26.8 | Doesn't Cover |
| UTSA | Southern Mississippi | UTSA | -8 | UTSA | -5.3 | Doesn't Cover |
| Boise State | Hawai'i | Boise State | -11.5 | Boise State | -14.7 | Covers |
| Florida | Vanderbilt | Florida | -30.5 | Florida | -34 | Covers |
| Navy | South Florida | Navy | -4 | Navy | -0.1 | Doesn't Cover |
| Oklahoma State | Oklahoma | Oklahoma | -8.5 | Oklahoma | -4.4 | Doesn't Cover |
| Houston | SMU | SMU | -3 | Houston | -1.1 | Doesn't cover |
| LSU | Arkansas | Arkansas | -2.5 | LSU | -1.8 | Doesn't cover |
| Tulane | Tulsa | Tulsa | -4.5 | Tulsa | 0 | Doesn't Cover |
| California | Oregon State | California | -6 | California | -1.4 | Doesn't Cover |
| Ohio | Miami (Ohio) | Ohio | -3.5 | Ohio | -8.2 | Covers |
| Toledo | Eastern Michigan | Toledo | -7.5 | Toledo | -12.3 | Covers |
| Michigan | Rutgers | Michigan | -10.5 | Michigan | -5.6 | Doesn't Cover |
| San Diego State | Nevada | San Diego State | -3 | San Diego State | -8 | Covers |
| Western Michigan | Central Michigan | Central Michigan | -2.5 | Western Michigan | -2.6 | Doesn't cover |
| Syracuse | Louisville | Louisville | -6 | Louisville | -0.7 | Doesn't Cover |
| Kansas State | Iowa State | Iowa State | -7.5 | Iowa State | -12.9 | Covers |
| East Carolina | Temple | Temple | -2 | East Carolina | -3.6 | Doesn't cover |
| Illinois | Nebraska | Nebraska | -14.5 | Nebraska | -8.3 | Doesn't Cover |
| Michigan State | Maryland | Maryland | -6 | Maryland | -12.6 | Covers |
| Georgia Tech | Miami (Florida) | Miami (Florida) | -18.5 | Miami (Florida) | -25.1 | Covers |
| Georgia State | South Alabama | Georgia State | -1 | Georgia State | -8.4 | Covers |
| Wake Forest | Duke | Wake Forest | -6.5 | Wake Forest | -13.9 | Covers |
| Virginia Tech | Pittsburgh | Virginia Tech | -2 | Virginia Tech | -9.7 | Covers |
| New Mexico | Air Force | Air Force | -10.5 | Air Force | -18.4 | Covers |
| Tennessee | Auburn | Auburn | -11.5 | Auburn | -21.9 | Covers |
| UNLV | Colorado State | Colorado State | -14 | Colorado State | -3.2 | Doesn't Cover |
| Washington State | Stanford | Stanford | -1.5 | Washington State | -9.4 | Doesn't cover |
| Akron | Kent State | Kent State | -22.5 | Kent State | -33.7 | Covers |
| Mississippi | Texas A&M | Texas A&M | -11.5 | Texas A&M | -0.2 | Doesn't Cover |
| USC | Utah | Utah | -1.5 | Utah | -14.5 | Covers |
| Liberty | North Carolina State | North Carolina State | -3 | Liberty | -10.3 | Doesn't cover |
| Buffalo | Bowling Green | Buffalo | -30 | Buffalo | -43.5 | Covers |
| Indiana | Ohio State | Ohio State | -19.5 | Ohio State | -6 | Doesn't Cover |
| North Alabama | BYU | BYU | -46 | BYU | -31.2 | Doesn't Cover |
| Florida International | Western Kentucky | Western Kentucky | -9.5 | Florida International | -5.5 | Doesn't cover |
| Cincinnati | UCF | Cincinnati | -3 | Cincinnati | -18.3 | Covers |
| Middle Tennessee | Troy | Troy | -12 | Troy | -27.8 | Covers |
| Purdue | Minnesota | Purdue | -2.5 | Purdue | -18.6 | Covers |
| San Jose State | Fresno State | Fresno State | -1.5 | San Jose State | -16.7 | Doesn't cover |
| Abilene Christian | Virginia | Virginia | -35.5 | Virginia | -16.7 | Doesn't Cover |
| Rice | North Texas | North Texas | -2 | Rice | -17.1 | Doesn't cover |
| Iowa | Penn State | Penn State | -1.5 | Iowa | -17.7 | Doesn't cover |
| UCLA | Oregon | Oregon | Oregon | -21.5 | Covers | |
| Texas | Kansas | Texas | -28.5 | Texas | -51.9 | Covers |
According to that, which uses the opening spreads for the week, there are nine Category 3 games that the SPM likes particularly well. Of those, SP+ agrees on the following:
- Tennessee at Auburn (Auburn -11.5) (ugh)
- Washington State at Stanford (Washington State +1.5)
- Liberty at North Carolina State (Liberty +3)
- Indiana at Ohio State (Indiana +19.5)