| GRT's SPM | ||||
| Our spreads (opening) | SP+ spreads (mid-week) | |||
| Cat. 1 (all games) | Cat. 2 | Cat. 3 | All games | |
| Week 11 | 22-21 (51.16%) | 12-2 (85.71%) | 5-0 (100%) | 23-20 (53.49%) |
| Week 12 | 18-23 (43.90%) | 5-7 (41.67%) | 4-2 (66.67%) | 20-21 (48.78%) |
| Week 13 | 23-20 (53.49%) | 7-5 (58.33%) | 4-3 (57.14%) | 21-21 (50%) |
| Week 14 | 27-18 (60%) | 12-5 (70.59%) | 7-4 (63.64%) | 27-18 (60%) |
| Week 15 | 22-15 (59.46%) | 8-4 (66.67%) | 8-2 (80%) | 24-13 (64.86%) |
| Week 16 | 7-12 (36.84%) | 1-5 (16.67%) | 0-4 (0%) | 7-12 (36.84%) |
| Season | 267-235 (53.19%) | 100-83 (54.64%) | 54-43 (55.67%) | |
| SP+ | ||||
| Our spreads (opening) | Official results | |||
| Week 11 | 21-22 (48.84%) | 18-24-1 (43%) | ||
| Week 12 | 23-18 (56.10%) | 25-16 (61%) | ||
| Week 13 | 22-21 (51.16%) | 18-26 (41%) | ||
| Week 14 | 20-25 (44.44%) | 20-25 (44%) | ||
| Week 15 | 24-13 (64.86%) | 18-18-1 (50%) | ||
| Week 16 | 11-8 (57.89%) | 11-8 (58%) | ||
| Season | 280-222 (55.78%) | 258-243-7 (52%) |
After two weeks of right around 60% on all games, the GRT Statsy Preview Machine took a pie in the face this week, going only 7-12 (36.84%) overall, 1-5 (16.67%) in Category 2, and 0-4 ( let me see . . . 0%) in Category 3. For the season, the Machine is now 267-235 (53.19%) in Category 1, 100-83 (54.64%) in Category 2, and 54-43 (55.67%) in Category 3.
Because the Machine struck out on Category 3 games, it also struck out on both “Category 4” games. For the seven weeks we’ve been tracking Cat 4 games, they are 19-5 (79.16%).
The Machine had an identical result for all games using mid-week spreads: 7-12 (36.84%).
SP+, meanwhile, had a solid week, going 11-8 (58%) officially, using its own mid-week spreads. For the season, SP+ is 258-243-7 (52%). It had the same results against opening spreads (11-8, 57.89%) and is now 280-222 (55.78%) for the season against those spreads.
Below are the GRT Statsy Preview Machine’s picks for the 2020 college football bowl season. As always, if you’re wondering why we do this or what I mean when I refer to “confidence” and when I place game predictions into different categories, check out this post. Also, in case it’s not perfectly clear from the above results, spreads matter.
GRT SPM 2020 Bowl Picks
Ignore the Home and Away column headings again this week, as bowls are all neutral site games. I’ve accounted for them in the calculations, but haven’t denoted them in the table.
| Away | Home | Favorite | Spread | SPM Favorite | SPM Spread | Favorite... |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio State | Clemson | Clemson | -7 | Clemson | -6.7 | Doesn't Cover |
| Western Kentucky | Georgia State | Georgia State | -4.5 | Georgia State | -4.8 | Covers |
| Tulane | Nevada | Tulane | -3 | Tulane | -4.2 | Covers |
| Louisiana Tech | Georgia Southern | Georgia Southern | -4.5 | Georgia Southern | -6 | Covers |
| Notre Dame | Alabama | Alabama | -19.5 | Alabama | -17.8 | Doesn't Cover |
| Ball State | San Jose State | San Jose State | -7 | San Jose State | -8.9 | Covers |
| Oregon | Iowa State | Iowa State | -4 | Iowa State | -1.7 | Doesn't Cover |
| Oklahoma | Florida | Florida | -2.5 | Florida | -5.3 | Covers |
| Appalachian State | North Texas | Appalachian State | -19.5 | Appalachian State | -22.4 | Covers |
| Oklahoma State | Miami (Florida) | Oklahoma State | -2.5 | Miami (Florida) | -1.5 | Doesn't cover |
| Louisiana-Lafayette | UTSA | Louisiana-Lafayette | -12.5 | Louisiana-Lafayette | -7.7 | Doesn't Cover |
| Arkansas | TCU | TCU | -6 | TCU | -11 | Covers |
| Mississippi | Indiana | Indiana | -6.5 | Indiana | -1.5 | Doesn't Cover |
| Wake Forest | Wisconsin | Wisconsin | -7 | Wisconsin | -12.2 | Covers |
| Liberty | Coastal Carolina | Coastal Carolina | -5 | Coastal Carolina | -11.4 | Covers |
| Auburn | Northwestern | Northwestern | -2.5 | Northwestern | -9 | Covers |
| Iowa | Missouri | Iowa | -13.5 | Iowa | -22.5 | Covers |
| Tulsa | Mississippi State | Tulsa | -1.5 | Tulsa | -11.2 | Covers |
| Marshall | Buffalo | Buffalo | -3.5 | Marshall | -7.5 | Doesn't cover |
| North Carolina State | Kentucky | Kentucky | -2.5 | North Carolina State | -8.8 | Doesn't cover |
| Texas A&M | North Carolina | Texas A&M | -5.5 | North Carolina | -6 | Doesn't cover |
| Hawaii | Houston | Houston | -11 | Hawai''i | -1.8 | Doesn't cover |
| Texas | Colorado | Texas | -11.5 | Colorado | -2.3 | Doesn't cover |
| UCF | BYU | BYU | -4.5 | BYU | -20.8 | Covers |
| West Virginia | Army | West Virginia | -9 | Army | -7.4 | Doesn't cover |
| Cincinnati | Georgia | Georgia | -6.5 | Cincinnati | -18.3 | Doesn't cover |
| Memphis | Florida Atlantic | Memphis | -9 | Florida Atlantic | -18.2 | Doesn't cover |
Bowl season features seven Category 3 games, those that the GRT Statsy Preview Machine likes particularly well. Of those, the following five make the Category 4 cut because they also agree with SP+:
- Iowa vs. Missouri (Iowa -13.5)
- Tulsa vs. Mississippi State (Tulsa -1.5)
- Marshall vs. Buffalo (Marshall +3.5)
- North Carolina State vs. Kentucky (North Carolina State +2.5)
- Texas A&M vs. North Carolina (North Carolina +5.5)
I’m really interested to see how the Statsy Preview Machine does in this weird season where there were very few, if any, data points for cross-conference play. I’m hoping that its focus on how a team does relative to what its opponents usually do does a good job of predicting how it will do against any opponent regardless of conference affiliation or schedule strength. We’ll see.