Here’s the latest info from the team sheets, updated through the games on Tuesday night and sorted by NET Rankings:
| Algorithms | Records | ||||||||||
| NET | KPI | SOR | BPI | POM | SAG | Overall | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | |
| Gonzaga | 1 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 29-2 | 4-2 | 7-0 | 7-0 | 11-0 |
| Virginia | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 27-2 | 10-2 | 5-0 | 5-0 | 7-0 |
| Duke | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 26-4 | 8-3 | 6-1 | 7-0 | 5-0 |
| Tennessee | 4 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 27-3 | 7-3 | 6-0 | 7-0 | 6-0 |
| Kentucky | 5 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 25-5 | 10-4 | 4-1 | 6-0 | 5-0 |
| Houston | 6 | 10 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 17 | 27-2 | 4-2 | 9-0 | 4-0 | 10-0 |
| UNC | 7 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 25-5 | 8-5 | 7-0 | 6-0 | 4-0 |
| Michigan St. | 8 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 24-6 | 10-4 | 5-2 | 5-0 | 4-0 |
Tennessee is still in the Top 4 despite having their Quadrant 1 win over Mississippi State Tuesday negated by the win at Texas A&M falling from Q1 to Q2 thanks to the Aggies’ loss to South Carolina Tuesday.
Comparing Tennessee’s and Duke’s Q1 resumes
The main curiosity in the Top 4 is why Duke remains ahead of the Vols with a worse overall record and a Q2 loss to boot. Looking at the detail of each team’s Q1 record probably provides the answer.
Tennessee has home wins over No. 5 Kentucky and No. 23 Mississippi State, neutral site over No. 1 Gonzaga and No. 24 and road wins over No. 34 Florida, No. 37 Ole Miss, and No. 51 Memphis. Their Q1 losses are on the road to No. 5 Kentucky and No. 13 LSU (in overtime), and on a neutral court to No. 18 Kansas (also in overtime).
Duke has only 1 Q1 home win, but it is against No. 2 Virginia. The Blue Devils have neutral site wins over No. 5 Kentucky, No. 10 Texas Tech, and No. 20 Auburn, and they have road wins over No. 2 Virginia, No. 19 Florida State, No. 24 Louisville, and No. 42 Syracuse. Duke’s Q1 losses are on the road to No. 12 Virginia Tech, on a neutral court to No. 1 Gonzaga, and at home to No. 7 North Carolina.
Tennessee really has no bad losses, and the Vols’ best is a neutral-site win over No. 1 and a home win over No. 5. The LSU game would have been a “good” road win, but alas.
Duke has a home loss, but it’s to a No. 7 team. It’s best includes a road win over No. 2, a neutral-site win over No. 5, and a over No. 2. That road win over No. 2 Virginia is probably the difference.
Can Tennessee jump Duke this weekend?
All that said, I wonder if Duke falls below Tennessee even if the Vols beat Auburn and the Blue Devils lose at No. 7 North Carolina this weekend. For them, it’s not a bad loss, but it is another loss. And for the Vols, it wouldn’t be the best win, but it would be a good one. This is where I should put my opinion, but I really have no clue. Regardless, they’ll almost certainly stay ahead of the Vols if they win this weekend, so I’m rooting hard for North Carolina.
Although it’s a legitimate question, I’m not all that concerned about the possibility of the Tar Heels actually jumping the Vols if they beat Duke Saturday. If they win, their Q1 resume would include a win over No. 1 Gonzaga, but it’s a win at home. Their best win would actually be the road victory over Duke. They’ve played No. 2 Virginia, No. 5 Kentucky, and No. 9 Michigan, but they lost all three of those games. The argument would be that Duke swept Virginia and UNC swept Duke, but I just think their overall resume is too far behind the Vols’ to jump Tennessee in one weekend, assuming Tennessee wins.
This weekend, what’s good for the Heels is good for the Vols.