If you were looking for a pick-me-up this week with all the football drama, the basketball trip to Gainesville was not it. Maybe fewer of us were looking with all the football stuff going on. Either way, the Vols get another shot against a good team tomorrow night, as Missouri comes to Knoxville for the return match.
I wouldn’t expect another 20-point blowout; both Missouri and Tennessee were woeful at the free throw line the first time, so the game could go lots of different ways. And we’re unsure about the status of Jaden Springer, who continues to be Tennessee’s most productive option offensively on a per-minute basis.
What went wrong in Gainesville was similar to what went wrong against Alabama from a lineup perspective: Springer was hurt and Pons got two fouls early. In terms of efficiency, those are Tennessee’s best players on offense and defense. Unlike the battle with the Tide, the Vols never got back within striking distance in the second half against the Gators.
Tennessee’s defense is still second in the nation. When Pons is on the floor, it’s elite. I’m not worried about that part.
But Tennessee’s offense plummeted to 54th nationally in KenPom. It’s not a death sentence – the 2010 Elite Eight Vols finished 75th, though they played much of the SEC calendar at less than full strength – but it needs to improve if the Vols are going to get back into the conversation for the bracket’s top line. In that regard, the Vols were passed by Alabama in the span of about four hours Tuesday night: a 26-point loss in Gainesville followed by a 30-point win for Bama in Baton Rouge, and now the Tide are the SEC’s best team by any metric you’d like. And because of some scheduling advantages the rest of the way home, KenPom projects the Tide to finish a blistering 16-2 in league play, with the Vols at 13-5. We’ll see about all of that, but if you want to have that conversation, Tennessee needs to figure out its offense.
The four factor numbers aren’t bad: 21st in turnovers, 50th in offensive rebounding percentage, 52nd in free throw rate. Much of Tennessee’s struggle has been the old Cuonzo Martin frustration: “We didn’t make shots.”
Optimism alert!
Tennessee’s offense is still based in getting good shots through good ball movement. It’s not as white-hot in this department as it’s been the last three years; the Vols were fourth nationally in assist rate last season, it’s not purely a product of having Grant Williams and Admiral Schofield on your team. Tennessee is currently 47th nationally in that stat, but just 156th in effective field goal percentage. Hard to get assists when the shots won’t fall.
So if we like most of the looks, but want to do more than just hope for the law of averages, how can Tennessee get their most productive scorers more opportunities?
Among the top seven players, who takes the most shots for Tennessee?
| Player | Pct. of Shots |
| Bailey | 16.2% |
| Fulkerson | 13.8% |
| Vescovi | 12.9% |
| Pons | 12.6% |
| Johnson | 12.0% |
| James | 11.2% |
| Springer | 10.7% |
Victor Bailey had something straight out of his nightmares against Florida: 1-of-10 in the first half, 1-of-12 overall, 0-of-6 from three, 2-of-6 at the line, and five turnovers. Gross.
Bailey’s turnovers and missed free throws were unusual, he’s been good in both departments this season. Do the Vols want him taking more shots than anyone else?
This happens in part because he’ll score from inside and outside the arc, and can be used in different ways more than John Fulkerson. And it may be happening because some of the perimeter alternatives are freshmen who may not have or feel the greenest of lights; Keon Johnson tried to assert himself early in the second half and it worked well in that initial spurt.
But in particular from three, Bailey’s volume shooting hasn’t helped the Vols: he’s currently the fourth-best three-point shooter on the team (behind Springer’s small sample size, Vescovi, and James), but he takes the second-most threes, trailing only Vescovi. Vescovi is 26-of-66 (39.4%) on the year. Bailey is 17-of-55 (30.4%).
Tennessee needs Springer to play, obviously. And so far, they really only want Vescovi to shoot threes and distribute, even off penetration: he’s 10-of-24 inside the arc. If you’re looking for better scoring inside the arc, that’s the same old answer: John Fulkerson.
Fulkerson is the team’s best scorer from two at 54.7%. He doesn’t turn it over very often when he gets it. And he gets to the free throw line (84th nationally) and knocks them down once there (77.8%). As Rick Barnes loves to point out, the Vols need more from Fulkerson. He steadied their ship when the waters got bumpy last year, and turned in an elite performance at Rupp Arena. It’s a different kind of bumpy early this season, with so many parts producing an offense that needs to get better. But a huge piece of that puzzle on this team will always be John Fulkerson from two.
Get Springer healthy. Have a more even distribution of who’s taking your threes. Get Fulkerson going from two. And maybe those averages will start feeling a little more friendly.