The Cuonzo Maritn school of, “We didn’t make shots,” is still in session in Knoxville. The Vols continue to have the second-best defense in the nation via KenPom, but the offense has plummeted in the last three games, two of them losses, one of them to Cuonzo’s current employer. In that span the Vols dropped to the three line in yesterday’s Bracket Matrix, and are a four in Bart Torvik’s predictive bracketology. It’s been true all year that Gonzaga and Baylor are clearly the best two teams in the land. That means there’s great value in getting a three seed or higher, because you guarantee you’re not running into one of those teams in the Sweet 16. The goal remains to get your best basketball by March, and give yourself the easiest possible path through the bracket along the way. So what does Tennessee’s best basketball look like right now?
We’ll get back to Jaden Springer in a moment, but in general, what’s gone most wrong for the Vols in conference play is, of course, that they’re not making shots – 11th in the SEC in effective field goal percentage, just 29.9% from the arc – and they get no second chances, ranking dead last in offensive rebounding. Tennessee still leads the league in assist rate, getting the most made baskets off of assists. But with lineups still in flux and trending toward more minutes for the five star freshmen, it’ll be interesting to see if that number rises as the Vols make more of those good looks, or falls because the freshmen utilize their skills to get more on their own.
Per minute, Jaden Springer has been Tennessee’s best offensive player all season, now at 19.4 points per game per 40 minutes. Victor Bailey’s volume shooting is second in points per minute, with Keon Johnson third (16.4). And right behind those three guards is John Fulkerson, who still possesses good numbers offensively and is excellent at drawing fouls…but against Mississippi State, he took three shots and three free throws in 29 minutes. The Vols still used their defense to get exactly the kind of win they’ll still need some nights in this league. But the Vols still believe there’s more out there from Fulkerson.
That brings us to Kansas, who got off to an 8-1 start with their only loss to Gonzaga, no shame there. Then they were blown out 84-59 by Texas on their home floor, took two games from TCU, and otherwise went into the Big 12 meat grinder: beat Oklahoma by four, went 0-3 on a road trip at Oklahoma State, Baylor, and Oklahoma.
The Big 12 has lost some of its shine, with the Big Ten, at least in KenPom, now laying claim to best conference in the land status. Alabama and Tennessee are the only two SEC teams in the KenPom Top 20. The Big 12 has six. As such, there are significant opportunities for the league tomorrow:
- #9 Alabama at #24 Oklahoma – 12:00 PM – ESPN
- Florida at #11 West Virginia – 2:00 PM – ESPN
- #10 Texas Tech at LSU – 2:00 PM – ESPN2
- Auburn at #2 Baylor – 4:00 PM – ESPN
- Arkansas at Oklahoma State – 4:00 PM – ESPN2
- #15 Kansas at #18 Tennessee – 6:00 PM – ESPN
- #5 Texas at Kentucky – 8:00 PM – ESPN
That’s a great slate of basketball, one with meaningful opportunities not just for the Tide and Vols at the top, but the handful of SEC teams trying to play their way up the seed line, plus relative season-making opportunities for Auburn and Kentucky squads that won’t make the tournament.
Monday is February. This season will get short in a hurry, and this upcoming stretch for Tennessee – Kansas, at Ole Miss, at Kentucky, Florida, at LSU – will speak loudest on our resume. I do believe there’s a game out there where Tennessee knocks down a bunch of these open looks and we win by more than we were anticipating. I’m not sure if Kansas will be that game, but in a Top 20 showdown with a national power, you take any victory any how. If it’s the defensive slugfest from earlier this week, great.
But if the Vols are trending more toward the freshmen into the teeth of this schedule, this will absolutely be an interesting three weeks. Johnson and Springer haven’t played a bunch on the floor at the same time, in part due to Springer’s ankle. Will the Vols lean on Vescovi, Johnson, Springer, Fulkerson, and Pons? Will they throw Josiah-Jordan James into that mix instead of Vescovi and play a super-talented and athletic perimeter game? What’s happening with Fulkerson in these lineup shifts, especially when dealing with 6’10” David McCormack?
The big picture questions with lineups, freshmen, and offensive identity are still unfolding, and now the toughest part of Tennessee’s schedule will demand answers. This is a big game at the outset of a big three weeks for this team. I’m excited to see what comes next.
Go Vols.