After three consecutive wins for the Big 12 from 2014-16 (and I’m sure a sense of, “Why are we doing this?” from their league), the SEC forged a tie in 2017 and won this event 6-4 last season. The bad news: three of the SEC’s six ranked teams – #16 Auburn, #22 Mississippi State, and red-hot #25 LSU – will not participate this year. For reasons beyond me, former Big 12 member Missouri has sat out four years in a row.
The Vols sat out the first year in 2014, but are 3-1 since then: wins over Kansas State in Knoxville for Donnie Tyndall in 2015 and Rick Barnes in 2017, a loss at TCU in Barnes’ first year, and a beat down of Iowa State in Ames last season. Those teams aren’t the names you get excited about playing in this thing. We thought this year would change that…but West Virginia hasn’t exactly held up their end of the bargain.
But first, let’s talk about Tennessee’s defense.
Good Isn’t Good Enough When You’re #1
If we’re trying to win the whole thing, which I’m pretty sure we are when atop the polls, I keep coming back to something I first saw on Villanova’s SB Nation blog last February: with the exception of 7-seed champion UConn in 2014, every national champion in the KenPom era (2002-present) has finished the year in the Top 20 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Tennessee flirted with this for much of last season, ultimately finishing sixth in defense and 36th in offense. And the Vols were there for much of the early portion of this season, but are currently second in offense and 34th in defense.
The change on the offensive end has been tremendous, was so before Grant Williams scored 43 the other night, and continues to deserve press and praise. Anyone who says they envisioned Tennessee turning into that kind of offensive threat while shooting 35.7% from the arc is a liar.
It seems strange to type, “Why has the defense gotten worse?” After all, it’s hard to think in terms of “worse” when you’re still 34th nationally in defensive efficiency and 30th in effective field goal percentage allowed. But what is most notably different right now?
- Three-Point Shooting: throw out Georgia’s 1-for-20 performance in the league opener; the other five conference games rank in the top seven in percentage allowed beyond the arc. The other two are then-#1 Gonzaga and now-#23 Louisville. Vanderbilt’s 47.6% was a season-high, but it doesn’t stand alone: put the Commodores in there with Missouri, Florida, Arkansas, and Alabama, and the Vols have allowed 50-of-127 (39.3%) from three in the last five games. That’s basically 10-of-25 per night. Will Warren has a good thread on the number of catch-and-shoot threes the Vols are allowing.
- Trading Steals for Blocks: if you’re looking for the thing Tennessee is very best at, it’s still shot-blocking: 4.6% of Tennessee’s attempts get blocked, best in the nation, and the Vols send back 15.7% of opponent attempts, seventh nationally. That’s impressive, and fits the makeup of this team. I have no idea if this is happening on purpose or not, but being so good at the rim is correlating with a drop in efficiency in creating steals. Last year the Vols averaged 6.4 steals per game and took it away on 9.4% of opponent possessions, 104th nationally. This year the Vols average 5.8 steals per game despite playing at a faster pace, taking it away on 7.9% of opponent possessions, 255th nationally. Again: this is where the Vols miss James Daniel most. Is fatigue an issue here as well? It doesn’t seem that way watching games, but Jordan Bone is averaging 32 minutes after just 23 last year, and Lamonte Turner may still be playing his way back to 100% on both ends of the floor. The Vols have to get more from whoever is on opposing guards off the dribble.
The best offenses in the SEC belong, for the most part, to the best teams in the league. That means Tennessee’s defense won’t see a bunch of great offenses until the much-talked-about last three weeks of the season. Until then, the best offense they’ll face is the one coming here Saturday.
Avenge the Belk Kickoff!
West Virginia made three Sweet 16’s in the last four years, bounced by a one seed each time. They lost their two leading scorers to graduation, plus freshman Teddy Allen to transfer. Then they lost their leading returning scorer, center Sagaba Konate, to a knee injury in December; he could return this season, but no signs point to this weekend. In his absence 6’10” freshman Derek Culver has stepped in, and currently leads the Big 12 in defensive rebounding percentage.
If Tennessee is looking to improve defensively, here’s a good place to start: West Virginia has 249 assists to 289 turnovers this year. That’s more than 15 turnovers per game; they give it away on 21.3% of possessions and are especially vulnerable via steal, 341st nationally in steal percentage allowed (11.4% of possessions). Without Konate, 6’0″ guard James Bolden is the leading scorer at 12.8 per game, with 2.6 assists to 2.2 turnovers.
What West Virginia does well: get on the offensive glass (10th nationally), and get to the line (14th nationally). They will routinely run a 6’8″+ front line out there; 6’8″ senior Esa Ahmad is their best at getting to the stripe.
Their profile is not that different than Vanderbilt’s: injury derailed their hopes, mostly competitive but always on the wrong end in conference play. The Mountaineers lost to Texas Tech by three, at Texas by seven, at Kansas State by two and Oklahoma State by eight to open Big 12 play. Then they were blown out by 31 at TCU. But just when you wanted to write them off…they beat Kansas, something Tennessee did not do, 65-64 in Morgantown.
So, yes, KenPom likes the Vols by 18. That’s the mantle Tennessee has earned, even after the last two near-misses. We don’t want to get into that thing where we criticize every performance that isn’t a 20-point blowout just because we’re number one; there was plenty to enjoy from that win over Vanderbilt. Hopefully we find more of the same tomorrow.
Here’s the full schedule for the SEC/Big 12 Challenge:
- #24 Iowa State at #20 Ole Miss – 12:00 PM – ESPN
- Florida at TCU – 12:00 PM – ESPN2
- Alabama at Baylor – 12:00 PM – ESPNU
- Kansas State at Texas A&M – 2:00 PM – ESPN
- Texas at Georgia – 2:00 PM – ESPN2
- South Carolina at Oklahoma State – 2:00 PM – ESPNU
- West Virginia at #1 Tennessee – 4:00 PM – ESPN
- Vanderbilt at Oklahoma – 4:00 PM – ESPN2
- #9 Kansas at #8 Kentucky – 6:00 PM – ESPN
- Arkansas at #14 Texas Tech – 6:00 PM – ESPN2