Two weeks ago Texas A&M was the best team in the best SEC of at least the last decade. The Aggies were ranked fifth in the Christmas Day AP poll, 11-1 with a three-point loss to Arizona the only blemish. They beat West Virginia – currently ranked second in the nation – by 23 points in the season opener. They won at then-#10 Southern Cal by 16. They were rolling.
Then there was some weirdness. DJ Hogg served a three game suspension. Robert Williams missed a game with illness. Admon Gilder missed five games with a knee injury. Duane Wilson has missed three and counting with another knee injury. Tyler Davis, who leads the team in scoring at 14.6 points per game, is one of only two Aggies in the top eight in scoring who has played every game this year.
In the midst of all this lineup shuffling, they entered SEC play. They lost at Alabama by 22. Then they lost at home to Florida by 17. Then they lost to LSU on a last second shot that “heave” doesn’t even begin to describe. Then they went to Rupp with most of their lineup healthy, and may or may not have gotten hosed on a pass interference no-call in another one-point loss. And now A&M is 11-5 (0-4).
In KenPom, Tennessee is the best team in the SEC (and 15th nationally). Texas A&M, Auburn, Kentucky, and Florida are 21st-24th. So technically this is a match-up of the two best teams in the SEC via KenPom, but really it’s just another big challenge in Tennessee’s schedule, one that could go to number one in RPI by Saturday night.
What Texas A&M does well:
- These dudes are tall (so, you guessed it: offensive rebounding). The Aggies are 32nd nationally in offensive rebounding percentage at 35.3% (just ahead of the Vols at 35.2%). They’re not quite as strong as North Carolina, Auburn, or Kentucky in this metric, but they come about their numbers the old-fashioned way: Tyler Davis and Robert Williams are 6’10”, DJ Hogg is 6’9″, and they can bring Tonny Trocha-Morelos off the bench, also 6’10”. They lead the SEC with 55 offensive rebounds in four games.
- Defense (when at full strength). On the year, the Aggies allow just 38.8% from the floor, 18th nationally. In four SEC games, they allow 47.8%, last in the conference. They held West Virginia to 34.3% and Southern Cal to 28.2%. But they allowed Kentucky to shoot 55.8%, despite being as healthy as they’d been in the last two weeks. Florida shot 51.6%, Alabama 45.6%, and LSU 40%.
- A veteran team that shares the basketball. Behind the Vols, this is the second best team in the SEC in assist percentage at 60.7%, 25th nationally. Robert Williams is a sophomore, but the rest of their major pieces are juniors and seniors. They had 22 assists on 31 made shots in the win over West Virginia. But they also look a little like Tennessee last year in this stat: 10-1 with 15+ assists, 1-4 with 14 or fewer.
What Tennessee can do to win:
- Beat their size at the three-point line. The Aggies are 10-0 when holding opponents to 30% or less from the arc, 1-5 with losses to Alabama (30.4%), Arizona (31.8%), Kentucky (33.3%), LSU (42.9%), and Florida (17-of-28, 60.7%) when they don’t. The Vols shoot 39.5% on the season (33rd nationally) and in conference play (third in the league). Tennessee’s best looks have come playing inside-out; we’ll see how A&M’s size might affect that strategy in creating good offense from good ball movement.
- Win the turnover battle again. Last year it was the most important stat in Tennessee’s SEC-opening win at College Station: 16 Texas A&M turnovers led to a 10-point Volunteer win. A&M has 54 turnovers in SEC play, most in the league. If the Tennessee defense can continue to force turnovers, and the offense can continue to create good shots, the Vols will have a good chance to send A&M to 0-5.
- Who dictates the game? The Vols have won in chameleon-like fashion this year. They beat Purdue’s massive size by way of great defense and clutch shooting. They locked down Arkansas for 36 minutes, then got blown by with foul trouble at the end. They stood toe-to-toe with North Carolina on the offensive glass, then were obliterated there by a smaller Auburn team. They slowed it down against Kentucky, defended without fouling, and won in the grind. Then they were happy to get into a footrace with Vanderbilt and won by scoring 92 points. The Vols can win in more than one fashion, which is great. Is there a style of play Tennessee actually prefers and can dictate to an opponent? This may be a question for the back half of Tennessee’s conference schedule, when things get a little easier. If not, it’ll take a Purdue-like performance in defending A&M’s size without getting Grant Williams and Kyle Alexander into foul trouble to get this one home.
A win here would get the Vols through their early conference gauntlet at at least .500 after a trip to Missouri next week. There are six SEC teams in the KenPom Top 40 behind the Vols; by next weekend Tennessee will have played all of them except Florida, with only one game against the Gators and a trip to Rupp left on the schedule. I thought at the beginning of league play a 3-3 start would be a good sign; I didn’t see the end of the Arkansas game or most of the Auburn game coming, but the Vols have righted the ship since then and none of us saw A&M’s 0-4 start coming. A win here ensures the Vols will stay on the path to contending for an SEC title and a favorable NCAA seed.
6:00 PM Saturday, SEC Network. Go Vols.