We would’ve taken the basketball Vols any way we could get them at this point: football struggling, five games cancelled, a shot at #1 Gonzaga lost. The fifth of those covid cancellations was UT-Martin, our in-state brethren a late replacement…and 334th in KenPom. Get well soon to the Skyhawks…but now, in their place, a much more interesting option has appeared.
Tad Boyle’s Buffaloes live and die on the bubble: four NCAA Tournament appearances, two NIT’s and a CBI in his first eight years in Boulder. Those four trips to the big dance all landed between 8-11 on the seed list; they were 21-11 (10-8) and projected to be somewhere in there again when things got shut down in March.
Nevermind the usual preseason games that don’t exist this season: Colorado will give the Vols a much tougher test than they usually see in game one under Rick Barnes. Tennessee played Xavier in the opener in Cuonzo Martin’s last season and VCU in Donnie Tyndall’s opener. Since then, Tennessee has opened with UNC Asheville, Chattanooga, Presbyterian, Lenoir-Rhyne, and Asheville again. This is not a warm-up for Cincinnati on Saturday; the Buffaloes should present a similar challenge.
The loss of Gonzaga will sting on Selection Sunday. Tennessee still gets Kansas in the SEC/Big 12 Challenge, but the rest of our shortened non-conference schedule is now Colorado (KenPom #50), Cincinnati (#57), Appalachian State (#192), and a pair of cupcakes in Tennessee Tech (#321) and USC Upstate (#295). With a smaller sample size, it’ll be harder for the selection committee to differentiate between a good SEC team and a good Big East team, etc. Other than yet-to-play Tennessee and 2-0 Florida, conference heavyweights haven’t started clean: Kentucky lost to Richmond and Kansas, LSU lost to Saint Louis, Alabama was blown out by Stanford. For Tennessee, these opening games with Colorado and Cincinnati can go a long way in setting the opening tone.
Wright was one of the best facilitators in the nation last season, both leading the team in scoring (14.4 ppg) and finishing 68th nationally in assist rate. He plays 35 minutes a night and started hot this year, getting 24 in Colorado’s 76-58 win at Kansas State. The Buffaloes have shown no ill effects from a five-game losing streak to end the 2019-20 campaign; they were 21-6 on February 22 before coming apart with an overtime loss to Utah and four others all by at least seven points.
The fun of the Pons potential – the “put him on the other team’s best player every night” scenario – is Wright goes just 6’0″. Last year Colorado also got double-figure scoring from 6’7″ Tyler Bey, a second round pick of the Dallas Mavericks. Now 6’8″ freshman Jabari Walker is off to a nice start, scoring 19 points with nine rebounds in just 32 minutes of work in the first two games. Like Tennessee, Colorado is heavy on seniors and freshmen: 6’6″ Maddox Daniels and 6’7″ Jeriah Horne join Wright as veterans, Keeshawn Barthelemy joins Walker as a freshman seeing significant action.
Boyle’s teams are usually defense-first and excel at taking away second chances. Last year the Buffaloes were 35th nationally in opponent threes attempted, but teams splashed 34.2% of those (234th nationally).
This leads to one of the most interesting questions about Tennessee: how many threes, and who takes them?
At their best two years ago, the Vols shot 36.7% from the arc, 63rd nationally, but finished just 324th in threes attempted. That offense could get what it wanted through great ball movement, a staple of Barnes’ teams here. Last year the Vols were 217th nationally in threes attempted.
The lineups will be fascinating to see by themselves. But in particular, who gets the green light to shoot, and if this thing tightens up late, who gets those looks? Last year Lamonte Turner took 4.3 threes per game while he played, and Jordan Bowden took 5.5. That’s a big chunk of the puzzle. Among returning players, Santiago Vescovi took 5.3, but that number leans a little to his initial minutes. Yves Pons took 2.8, and Josiah James took just over three.
If Vescovi is playing more of the true point guard role this year, how many does he shoot? What about the freshmen? What about Victor Bailey, rumored to be the best shooter on this team the moment he stepped foot in Knoxville?
There is no warm-up, and the outcomes will weigh more heavily in the final analysis than usual. It’s a big game, right away.
And we’re so happy to see you.
6:00 PM ET Tuesday, online at SEC Network+.
Go Vols.