Opening the season with what we believe to be back-to-back bubble teams gives you a chance to learn about the #12 Vols at an accelerated rate. But this one in particular will help answer one of the biggest questions Tennessee faced coming into the year.
Last year the Vols went to Cincinnati coming off the loss to Memphis; Lamonte Turner was struggling but still playing. Tennessee shot 45% from the floor and 17-of-17 at the free throw line…and lost by 12. That’s because the Bearcats shot 56.4% from the floor and a blistering 26-of-40 for 65% inside the arc. The last team to shoot better than that against the Vols from two was Wisconsin in Maui in November of 2016. And Cincinnati was +11 on the glass.
Tre Scott, with his 15 points in 38 minutes, is gone, as are the Cumberland brothers in the backcourt. Guard Keith Williams is back, and the Bearcats run a lot of their stuff through him. But the biggest challenge for Tennessee against this team returns: 7’1″ Chris Vogt, now joined by 6’10” Rapolas Ivanauskas, often on the floor at the same time.
Cincinnati is 2-1 with a loss to Xavier and wins over Lipscomb and Furman (#65 KenPom). And once again, they’re getting it done inside the arc (58.5%, 25th nationally) and keeping everyone off the offensive glass (13th nationally).
What will Tennessee do against this kind of size? And can the Vols rebound well enough to win?
The answer to the latter will look long and hard toward E.J. Anosike. The Vols didn’t rebound as well as Rick Barnes would’ve liked against Colorado (-6), but Anosike grabbed four offensive rebounds in 14 minutes. That Jarnell Stokes/Jeronne Maymon role we wanted to see if he could play looked good in the opener. Tennessee still got 10 rebounds from Yves Pons and the usual better-than-you-think rebounding from Josiah James with six boards. They will need all of that and more against this team, especially if shots aren’t falling again.
Defensively, Tennessee has made so much hay as a shot blocking team under Rick Barnes: fifth nationally in block percentage last year, 10th in 2019, and always in the Top 65 nationally even in the first two years when the Vols struggled. Last year the Vols blocked 7% of Cincinnati’s shots, half their normal average. When facing this kind of height at multiple positions, it’s hard for Pons to be everywhere and hard for anyone to be disruptive. The Vols created a different kind of havoc against Colorado, forcing a turnover on 35.7% of their possessions. It’s one game, but that’s currently second in the nation. The more you force turnovers, the fewer shots you need to block.
The Vols won’t see this kind of size often, but they will again if Kentucky continues to put 6’10” Isaiah Jackson and 7’0″ Olivier Sarr on the floor together. But Tennessee’s potential to be a better rebounding team will get a stiff test early. And as was the case with Colorado, non-conference performance will matter much more with smaller sample sizes due to the virus. The Vols are still trying to add one more game, but after this one our non-conference schedule features three teams hovering in the 200+ range in KenPom, then Kansas in January.
We’re still playing college football on Saturdays (which will become clear when you see the TV schedule), but check out the opportunities for the league in basketball tomorrow:
- Florida at #10 Florida State, 11:00 AM, ESPNU
- Mississippi State vs Dayton (Atlanta), 12:00 PM, ESPNews
- Notre Dame at Kentucky, 12:00 PM, CBS
- Cincinnati at #12 Tennessee, 12:30 PM, SEC Network Alternate
- Texas A&M at TCU, 2:00 PM, ESPN+
- Auburn vs Memphis (Atlanta), 5:00 PM, SEC Network Alternate
- Alabama vs Clemson (Atlanta), 7:30 PM, ACC Network
- #6 Illinois at Missouri, 8:00 PM, SEC Network Alternate
That’s a big spot for Cuozno’s team to help us all out.
The Vols can help themselves, and help us feel better about one of their few perceived weaknesses, by how they handle Cincinnati’s size tomorrow. Does Anosike get more minutes? Do the Vols again create so many turnovers it just doesn’t matter? Will the mid-range jumper be our friend this time?
See you at 12:30 tomorrow to find out.
Go Vols.