How’s the Kevin Stallings/Vanderbilt break-up going in year two? The ‘Dores lost in Dayton in Stallings’ last year, then became the first team to earn an at-large bid with 15 losses (as a 9 seed!) under Bryce Drew before a heartbreaking end against Northwestern in round one. So far this year Vanderbilt is 6-9 against the nation’s 10th most difficult schedule. Stallings, charming as ever, had the first losing season in 17 years at Pitt in year one, and is currently 8-8 with three double digit losses to open ACC play.
There’s no Luke Kornet, but all the other names you know and love are back: Jeff Roberson, Matthew Fisher-Davis, and Riley LaChance all average between 11-15 points while playing 28-32 minutes. Freshman guard Saben Lee adds another 10.5 points. There’s a problem from there, though: no one else averages more than five points per game, a hodgepodge of seven other guys playing between 11-18 minutes.
Vandy beat Alabama 76-75 last week for their first SEC win. Their next best win this season is your choice of Radford or UNC Asheville. But all of their nine losses are to teams projected to finish in the RPI Top 100, six of them in the RPI Top 50. Only a couple were particularly competitive – an overtime loss to then-#10 Southern Cal, home losses to Kansas State and MTSU by a combined eight points in the same week – but I wouldn’t sleep on this team just yet.
What Vanderbilt does well:
- Let it fly. Vandy takes 26.1 threes per game, and leads the SEC with 85 in their first three conference games. There’s a stark contrast on the stat sheet: LaChance shoots 43.7% from the arc, Roberson 41.9%, and then a fairly significant break. MFD is at just 33.7%, Payton Willis at 35.3% off the bench, and there are a bunch of guys shooting percentages with a 1 or 2 in front of them. The team shoots 32.7%, 278th nationally. This reeks of a team that could suddenly get hot (and they did hit 10-of-25 against Alabama), but so far, being not so good on percentage hasn’t kept them from taking them.
- Limit turnovers. The Vols feasted on Kentucky in this department, but will find a different and much more experienced animal in Nashville. Or at least that was the case until South Carolina turned them over 19 times in their last game. Before that, the Dores averaged just 9.8 turnovers in their previous six games.
- Defending threes. Opponents shoot 31.4% against Vanderbilt from the arc, 47th nationally. This hasn’t made a big difference in wins/and losses: the ‘Dores have five losses where the opponent shot less than 30% from the arc, which is fascinating. The Vols did a good job against Kentucky getting open threes against a team that typically limits their effectiveness; they’ll need more of the same here.
What Tennessee can do to win:
- Defensive excellence returns. Tennessee is still 14th nationally in defensive efficiency via KenPom, in part because we’ve played the nation’s third toughest schedule by offensive efficiency. And the Vols beat Kentucky despite allowing 46.2% from the floor. But the Vols are allowing 46.5% in three SEC games, worst in the SEC. The Vols, of course, have played three excellent offenses. But now, against a team that loves to shoot threes, on the road, in a rivalry game…the best way to win is for Tennessee’s defense to take all of that out of the equation with a return to its own excellence.
- Complement good offense at the free throw line. Tennessee’s assist rate has been a big story all year. But the Vols are backing that up with good work at the line in SEC play: 66-of-87 (75.9%) is first in makes, second in attempts, and fifth in percentage through three games. Grant Williams is what you’d expect with an average of 4.8 free throw attempts per game. But the rest of the scorers have been really good here too: Schofield, Bowden, and Turner all have 38 attempts this year, and Jordan Bone has 42. Everybody can attack and everybody can get to the line, on top of a strong ball-sharing offense to begin with.
- Handle success. The Vols only had 24 hours to process their win over Purdue, but came out hot against Villanova before falling short. There’s a little more distance between the Kentucky win and this trip, and the Commodores aren’t as good on paper as many of the teams the Vols have already faced this year. How will Barnes have his guys ready to go tonight in Nashville in a taking-care-of-business situation?
We continue to have the television schedule of a team picked to finish 13th in this league instead of the one currently ranked first in KenPom and RPI: 9:00 PM ET, SEC Network. Go Vols.