Here’s the Four Factors Gameplan for Tennessee’s game tonight against the Vanderbilt Commodores, a must-win for the Vols if they’re wanting to remain in the bubble conversation. The conclusions are upfront, just after each team’s baseline, and the details follow:
Baseline
First up, here’s what each team is doing at this point in the season.
Vanderbilt’s better at shooting threes and getting to the foul line, but Tennessee’s defense is much, much better than Vandy’s.
Summary and Score Prediction
Tennessee’s shooting offense gets a welcome reprieve tonight in playing a Vanderbilt shooting defense that is really struggling. And Tennessee’s smothering defense should frustrate Vanderbilt into poor percentages. Add to that the fact that Vanderbilt is also a terrible offensive rebounding team, and the Vols should have the advantage tonight. If there’s danger, it’s likely found at the free-throw line, as both teams tend to get there often, and both are too willing to comply.
The goals for the Vols:
- Win the shooting percentages battle. Do what you do on defense, and seize the opportunity to shoot better than usual on offense.
- No second shots for Vanderbilt. None.
- Stay at least even on free throw attempts.
You’ll recall that the Vols beat Vanderbilt in Nashville 66-45 on January 18. KenPom says to expect something similar tonight and puts the score at Tennessee 74, Vanderbilt 62.
Four Factors: Straight-Up
Effective FG%
Conclusion: Most like Georgia and Kentucky from a shooting perspective.
Turnover %
Conclusion: Better taking care of the ball than the Vols — and most like VCU and LSU in this regard — but Tennessee’s recent trend of doing better here may negate some or all of that.
Offensive Rebound %
Conclusion: In case you missed it, Gavin observed last week that the Vols are now 1-10 against the Top 10 teams on that list and 13-1 against the Bottom 14. Good news for the Vols tonight: Vanderbilt is a terrible offensive-rebounding team.
Free Throw Rate
Conclusion: These guys are really, really good at getting to the foul line. We’re climbing our way into the “We’re No Slouches, Either” category, but we’re not quite there yet.
Four Factors: Opponent impact
Effective FG%
Conclusions
When the Vols are shooting, this is weakness-on-weakness, so expect Tennessee to actually shoot better tonight. On the other side of the court, the Vols should be able to really frustrate Vanderbilt.
Turnover %
Conclusions
I don’t know that this really matters so much in this game.
Offensive Rebounding %
Conclusions
The thing that matters most here is that Vanderbilt is decidedly not good at offensive rebounding, and the Vols tend to take advantage of that kind of thing.
Free Throw Rate
Conclusions
Both teams like to get to the free-throw line, and both teams are all too willing to send the other there.
Go Vols.