Here’s the GRT Four Factors Gameplan for Tennessee’s game against the St. Joseph’s Hawks tonight.
Summary and Score Prediction
You have to hand it to Saint Joseph’s: Three of their first five games (including tonight against the Vols) will be against Top 10 teams. Keep that in mind when you cast a dismissive glance at their stats to date. On the other hand, the Vols aren’t likely to make things any easier for the Hawks tonight, and their stats will likely hold until their schedule lets up. Which shouldn’t be tonight.
Tennessee should have a chance to further improve its shooting percentages this evening and should be able to continue its dominance on the defensive end, forcing turnovers and tough shots without fouling and rebounding many of the misses. Bottom line: Tennessee appears to have the advantage in every facet of the game tonight.
So here’s our humble suggestion on how to better enjoy the game tonight by knowing what to watch for:
- Expect Tennessee to have sort of a dealer’s choice, either choosing their flavor of success or just playing until the smoothest of paths becomes evident.
- If they choose to work on things they’re not yet doing especially well, watch for the offense to continue to solve the “good shots” puzzle, increasing their percentages both from the field and from the three-point line, and also improving their ability to draw fouls and earn three throw attempts.
Vegas has Tennessee as a 20.5-point favorite. KenPom likes the Vols by 19 and puts the score at Tennessee 83, Saint Joseph’s 64, which translates into a 96% chance of winning.
According to our fledgling Hoops Statsy Preview Machine, Tennessee is scoring 116% of what its opponents usually give up and allowing only 68% of what those opponents usually get. Those numbers for Saint Joseph’s are 115% and 117%. It thinks the Vols cover pretty easily tonight. It’s also been wrong a lot, as it’s still finding its wings.
Details below.
Baseline
Here’s what each team looks like at this point of the season.
Hmm. That’s looking pretty good so far.
Four Factors: Straight-Up
Effective FG%
Conclusion: Not terrible shooters at this point. Most like Cincinnati.
Turnover %
Conclusion: I know I’m supposed to be looking at St. Joe’s, but I’m getting distracted by that No. 15 ranking for Tennessee. In turnover percentage! Woo. Huge improvement from last season so far.
Oh, and I almost forgot: The Hawks aren’t bad in this category.
Offensive Rebound %
Conclusion: More green for the Vols. Loving that. Also digging that Saint Joseph’s is really pretty bad at offensive rebounding.
Free Throw Rate
Conclusion: Well. The green party is over, apparently. Good news, though. The Hawks aren’t getting to the free throw line any more often than the Vols.
Four Factors: Opponent impact
Effective FG%
Conclusions
So the Vols have been shooting better recently but still have a ways to go. It appears that they’ll have an opportunity to improve that again tonight, although Will wisely points out that the Hawks have played a pretty wicked schedule so far this young season.
On the other side of the court, Tennessee’s defense continues to throttle the enthusiasm out of opponents and will likely continue to do so tonight against the Hawks.
Turnover %
Conclusions
Woo. We’re not giving the ball up, and we’re taking it away from opponents. Big advantages for the good guys in turnovers tonight.
Offensive Rebounding %
Conclusions
Ooh! Not only are the Vols super good at offensive rebounding and really good on the defensive boards as well, but Saint Joseph’s is apparently all too willing to just concede rebounds on both sides of the court. Nice.
Free Throw Rate
Conclusions
Well, who needs free throws anyway? The Hawks aren’t likely to even get a whiff of the free throw stripe tonight due to them not knowing the way and Tennessee crushing the compass. The Vols aren’t much better about getting there, although it looks like St. Joseph’s might make things easier in that regard this evening.
Go Vols.