Here’s a look at the four factors numbers for Tennessee’s game tonight against the Ole Miss Rebels. The conclusions are upfront, just after each team’s baseline, and the details follow:
Baseline
First up, here’s what each team is doing at this point in the season:
| FG% | 3FG% | TOs/G | OR/G | DR/G | FTA/G | |
| Tennessee | 42.5 | 30.5 | 14.3 | 10.12 | 26.76 | 18.24 |
| Ole Miss | 43.4 | 32.2 | 13.8 | 9.53 | 25.24 | 20.41 |
Summary and Score Prediction
In the second half against Vanderbilt Saturday, the Vols seemed to finally figure out how to get behind the defense, whether that was by foregoing threes, by transition offense resulting from good defense on the other end, by an increased emphasis and better execution getting the ball into the post, or by simply driving or passing around defenders to penetrate into the lane. Whatever the case, they shot 66.67% in the second half after managing only 40% in the first.
If that becomes a thing, and if the Vols can continue to keep their already stellar defensive play intact while doing it, then everything should begin to improve. Tonight against Ole Miss, they should have an opportunity to see if that second half at Vandy was an aberration or the first glimpse of a blossoming identity that can serve them well the rest of the way.
The goals for the Vols:
- On offense, get behind the outside guards. Drive or pass into the post or lane. Play inside-out. However you phrase it, get closer to the basket and continue to improve that shooting percentage.
- On defense, do what you do, but when you’re done, get to the other end quickly so everything in Step 1 is easier.
- Turnovers. Sigh. Somebody do something about this.
KenPom gives Tennessee a 78% chance of winning and puts the score at Tennessee 68, Ole Miss 60. We’ll take that.
Four Factors: Straight-Up
Effective FG%
| Team | eFG% | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Washington | 51.4 | 86 |
| Mississippi St. | 51.2 | 93 |
| Memphis | 50.9 | 104 |
| Tennessee | 48.8 | 199 |
Conclusion: As much trouble in the form of inconsistency the Vols have been having shooting the ball this season, Ole Miss really isn’t much better.
Turnover %
| Team | TO% | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Tennessee | 20.9 | 284 |
| Jacksonville St. | 21 | 293 |
| Mississippi St. | 21.1 | 298 |
| Missouri | 21.2 | 299 |
Conclusion: Shaking my head at the Vols ranking No. 285 in turnover percentage. Fortunately, the Rebels are pretty careless with the ball, too.
Offensive Rebound %
| Team | OR% | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Mississippi St. | 40 | 2 |
| LSU | 37.2 | 6 |
| Tennessee | 28.9 | 153 |
Conclusion: Well here we go. The Vols appear to be much better than Ole Miss at grabbing offensive boards.
Free Throw Rate
| Team | FTRate | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati | 37 | 68 |
| Mississippi St. | 36.9 | 69 |
| Mississippi | 36.5 | 74 |
| Tennessee | 34 | 129 |
Conclusion: Ole Miss is a lot like Cincinnati in getting to the free throw line, and they’re much better at it than the Vols.
Four Factors: Opponent impact
Effective FG%
When Tennessee has the ball
Despite shooting much better from the field against Vanderbilt (53.1%), Tennessee’s eFG% is still only 48.2 (No. 227). It will be going up against an Ole Miss defensive eFG% of 48.4 (No. 148).
When Ole Miss has the ball
The Rebels’ eFG% is 49.2 (No. 187), but Tennessee’s shooting defense is 43.4 (No. 13).
Conclusions
It’s anybody’s guess at this point how well or how poorly the Vols will shoot against any given team. The good news, though, is that the Vols’ shooting defense is really, really good, so shooting better than the opponent is always on the table.
Turnover %
When Tennessee has the ball
Tennessee’s terrible turnover % is now 21.2 (No. 285), while the Rebels’ defensive counterpart to this stat is 20.3 (No. 114).
When Ole Miss has the ball
Ole Miss’ turnover % is 19.7 (No. 206), while’s Tennessee’s ability to force turnovers is 20.4 (No. 105).
Conclusions
I’m not sure that the opponent matters so much anymore for the Vols, as they just need to focus on not just gifting the ball to the other team. Period.
Offensive Rebounding %
When Tennessee has the ball
Tennessee’s OR% is 30 (No. 107), but Ole Miss’ defense in that category is 24.9 (No. 50).
When Ole Miss has the ball
The Rebels’ OR% is 27.3 (No. 210), while the Vols’ defense in that category is 27 (No. 120).
Conclusions
Offensive boards should be at a premium for both teams tonight.
Free Throw Rate
When Tennessee has the ball
Tennessee’s FT Rate is 33.5 (No. 143), while Ole Miss’ defense against that is 37.5 (No. 278).
When Ole Miss has the ball
The Rebels’ FT Rate is 36.7 (No. 72), while Tennessee’s defense against that is 28.8 (No. 109).
Conclusions
Tennessee’s still not especially good at getting to the line, but the Vols should have some opportunities to get there more often than usual tonight against the Rebs. This is especially true if the ability to get behind the defense against the Commodores in the second half becomes a thing.
Go Vols.