The Vols, we think, are back in action tomorrow against Vanderbilt. Tennessee lost a date with South Carolina on Tuesday, then lost the reshuffled trip to Nashville, but we’re hopeful we’ll see the Vols and ‘Dores in Knoxville tomorrow (6:00 PM, SEC Network). The SEC left the final Saturday of the regular season open on March 6, so there’s a chance to make up one game. We’ll see what happens.
In Tennessee’s first ten games, the Vols have faced three Tier A opponents (via KenPom) and two Tier B opponents. On the other side of the Vanderbilt game comes the season’s most important stretch: five straight weeks, ten straight games against Tier A or B competition. Tennessee’s final three games, as it stands today, are against lesser competition: the original date for the trip to Vanderbilt, a trip to Auburn, and Georgia in Knoxville. Throw in a potential make-up with South Carolina, and the Vols would finish with four straight games against teams outside the NCAA Tournament conversation (…we think. South Carolina has only played five games total, so they’ll have a ton of questions to answer upon their return to action).
But the stretch from January 19 through February 20 is where Tennessee’s fate will be decided: at Florida, Missouri, Mississippi State, Kansas, at Ole Miss, at Kentucky, Florida, at LSU, South Carolina, Kentucky.
There are two goals coming into that stretch, and the one should have a good chance to lead to the other: win the SEC outright, and earn the program’s first number one seed.
The SEC
Three years ago, when the Vols last won the league, Tennessee opened SEC play in a big game at Arkansas. The Vols lost in overtime in a contest that featured heavy referee influence, shall we say. Emotions were high, etc. Then Tennessee returned home and gave up 341234 offensive rebounds in a loss to Auburn.
The Vols, of course, figured it out: they beat Kentucky in Knoxville four days later, went 13-5, and shared the league title with…Auburn. As it turned out, Tennessee played the second-best team in the league in game two, we just didn’t know it at the time.
I point that out to say this year, the Vols opened SEC play on the road against Top 15 Missouri, and delivered an emotional result of a different kind: the 20-point win that made those two goals up there the right ones for this team. Then they returned home and lost a weird lineup game to Alabama, who hit 10-of-20 from the arc and 8-of-11 in the second half.
Turns out, Bama’s good.
The Tide followed up with a 15-point win over Florida in Tuscaloosa, and just beat Kentucky in Rupp – still worth something – by 20, which is plenty of something. Alabama is 5-0 in the SEC and now 21st nationally in KenPom. I think Tennessee played the second best team in the SEC in game two, we just didn’t know it at the time…and like 2018, we won’t get another shot at them.
KenPom projects the Vols and Tide to “split” the SEC title: Alabama at 14-4, Tennessee at 13-4, and maybe they’ll get the South Carolina game rescheduled. LSU is one game back in those projections; the Tigers and Tide do play each other twice, so some of that may sort itself out. But Alabama has the pieces and the 5-0 head start to make a serious run at the league title. And they too will make a lot of their living right now: Arkansas, at LSU, Mississippi State, Kentucky, at Oklahoma, LSU, at Missouri in their next seven games. The logic here suggests you want to be ahead of Alabama in the standings when they finish that stretch on February 6, as a trip to Fayetteville on February 24 is Alabama’s only game against a Top 60 KenPom foe in their final seven contests.
KenPom projects the Vols to go 7-3 in that ten game stretch after Vanderbilt, which would put them in range for a 13/14-and-4 finish. They’ll all count, and that goes for the chase for a one seed too.
The #1 Seed
Let’s write GONZAGA at the top of your bracket.
Baylor goes next, but the Bears are getting ready to run their own little gauntlet: at Texas Tech, Kansas, at Oklahoma State in their next three. If they run that table, put them in all caps next.
From there, the chase for the two remaining one seeds gets murkier. As was the case two years ago, a lot will depend on how the selection committee views the power of each conference: in 2019, three ACC teams were placed on the top line, while Tennessee – fresh off a huge win over Kentucky and a huge loss to Auburn in the previous 48 hours – fell to the two line. Unlike previous years where regional sites mattered, this year we should get something that far more resembles a true s-curve (with a few exceptions to keep top teams from the same conference in separate regions). So, for instance, if the goal is to avoid Gonzaga for as long as possible, you don’t want to be the last two seed or the first three seed, because that should be Gonzaga’s region.
But the surest way to stay away from the Zags until the Final Four – a place Tennessee has never been – is to earn one of the other one seeds.
In non-pandemic times, number one seeds have averaged 4.5 losses on Selection Sunday over the last four tournaments. That, of course, includes conference tournament play; Tennessee hasn’t won the SEC Tournament since 1979. So all of these projections from KenPom would be pre-conference tournament.
KenPom Projected Records
- Gonzaga 23-1
- Baylor 21-3
- Michigan 20-4
- Villanova 18-4
- Tennessee 19-5
- Iowa 20-6
- Texas 19-6
- Creighton 19-6
I’d also throw in Houston, projected to finish 20-3 in the American, as an option for a top two seed. From here, it depends on who else can separate in the two best conferences (Big 10/12), and how the committee views leagues like the SEC and Big East by comparison. Illinois is just .05 points behind Tennessee in KenPom overall, but projected to finish 16-9. Similar stories with Wisconsin, Texas Tech, Kansas, and West Virginia.
If Alabama keeps winning, more power to them: that helps the league’s image in a year when Kentucky isn’t a factor. But no matter what Alabama does, the Vols have to keep holding up their end of the bargain.
For what it’s worth, Bart Torvik’s predictive bracketology has the Vols grabbing the final number one seed (with Texas the two in that region, spicy). It puts LSU on the four line, Alabama at five, Missouri at six, Arkansas at eight, and Florida at ten. In the January 11 Bracket Matrix, Tennessee is the third two seed, which would put them in Baylor’s region if the curve held. There Missouri is a four, Alabama at seven, with Florida, LSU, and Arkansas all at nine.
The Vols technically won’t control their own destiny for the SEC title until Alabama loses a game, but if the Tide run the table, uh, they’ll deserve it. But Tennessee still feels very much in control of its own destiny to capture a one seed, especially as Big 10/12 teams begin to pick each other off. It’s still the right goal for this team, and one that would give them the best chance to check some other program firsts off the list.