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Tennessee-Memphis four-factors preview

Here’s a look at the four factors numbers for Tennessee’s game this Saturday against the Memphis Tigers. The conclusions are up front, and the details follow:

Summary and Score Prediction

Both teams are playing really good defense and have an opportunity to frustrate the other into poor shooting percentages. Tennessee’s charitable heart on turnovers could be disastrous against a team as greedy for turnovers as Memphis, but the Vols could make up some ground in rebounding, especially on the offensive boards. Both teams should have plenty of opportunities at the foul line, so hitting those when you get there is probably even more important than usual.

The goals for the Vols:

  1. Protect the ball.
  2. Make the most of an apparent rebounding advantage.
  3. Win the Free Throw Rate battle and shoot a higher percentage of free throws when you get there.

KenPom gives Tennessee a 70% chance of winning and puts the score at Tennessee 74, Memphis 68.

My prediction: Tennessee 78, Memphis 72

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Tennessee and its prior opponents:

Team eFG% Rank
Washington 51.4 86
Mississippi St. 51.2 93
Memphis 50.9 104
Tennessee 48.8 199

Conclusion: Among Tennessee’s prior opponents, Memphis is most like Florida State at shooting the ball. They’re quite a bit better than the Vols.

Turnover %

Tennessee and its prior opponents:

Team TO% Rank
Tennessee 20.9 284
Jacksonville St. 21 293
Mississippi St. 21.1 298
Missouri 21.2 299

Conclusion: Neither team is especially good at protecting the ball, but Memphis is better. Among the Vols’ prior opponents, they’re most like VCU and Florida State.

Offensive Rebound %

Tennessee and its prior opponents:

Team OR% Rank
Mississippi St. 40 2
LSU 37.2 6
Tennessee 28.9 153

Conclusion: Memphis will be the best-rebounding team the Vols have played to date. Fortunately, Tennessee’s no slouch in this category, either.

Free Throw Rate

Tennessee and its prior opponents:

Team FTRate Rank
Cincinnati 37 68
Mississippi St. 36.9 69
Mississippi 36.5 74
Tennessee 34 129

Conclusion: Again, Memphis will be the best team the Vols have played when it comes to getting to the free-throw line. They compare best to Murray State at this point among prior Vols’ opponents. Tennessee is no slouch in this category, but Memphis appears to be clearly better at this point.

Those are the straight-up comparisons of the teams’ respective averages in the four factors, but what about the fact that those numbers are impacted in any given game by the opponent?

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s eFG% is 50.6 (No. 131), and it will be going up against a defense that is 41.5 (No. 12).

When Memphis has the ball

The Tigers’ eFG% is 52.2 (No. 81), while Tennessee’s shooting defense is 41.1 (No. 5).

Conclusions

Both teams are going to make it more difficult than usual for the other to shoot well.

Turnover %

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee is still struggling with a turnover % of 20.3 (No. 218). The Tigers’ defensive counterpart to this stat is 23.3 (No. 41).

When Memphis has the ball

Memphis’ turnover % is 19.7 (No. 187), while’s Tennessee’s ability to force turnovers is 20.2 (No. 142).

Conclusions

Expect some frustration at Tennessee’s tendency to turn the ball over because it will be exacerbated by Memphis’ better-than-most ability to force turnovers.

Offensive Rebounding %

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s OR% is 32.3 (No. 70), and Memphis’ defense in that category is 31.1 (No. 271).

When Memphis has the ball

The Tigers’ OR% is 34.8 (No. 31), while the Vols’ defense in that category is 22.6 (No. 14).

Conclusions

The Vols have a huge advantage in rebounding under their own basket, largely because the Tigers aren’t very good there. Memphis is better on their own side of the court, but the Vols still have an advantage on that end. Bottom line: The Vols have an advantage rebounding the ball.

Free Throw Rate

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s FT Rate is 40 (No. 42), while Memphis’ defense against that is 35.3 (No. 248).

When Memphis has the ball

The Tigers’ FT Rate is 44.9 (No. 6), while Tennessee’s defense against that is 26.8 (No. 84).

Conclusions

Both teams know how to get to the line. Memphis is marginally better at it than Tennessee, but Tennessee is much better at keeping their opponents off the line. Here’s to hoping that that translates into more trips for the Vols.

Summary and Score Prediction

Both teams are playing really good defense and have an opportunity to frustrate the other into poor shooting percentages. Tennessee’s charitable heart on turnovers could be disastrous against a team as greedy for turnovers as Memphis, but the Vols could make up some ground in rebounding, especially on the offensive boards. Both teams should have plenty of opportunities at the foul line, so hitting those when you get there is probably even more important than usual.

The goals for the Vols:

  1. Protect the ball.
  2. Make the most of an apparent rebounding advantage.
  3. Win the Free Throw Rate battle and shoot a higher percentage of free throws when you get there.

KenPom gives Tennessee a 70% chance of winning and puts the score at Tennessee 74, Memphis 68.

My prediction: Tennessee 78, Memphis 72

Go Vols.