The No. 5 Tennessee Volunteers travel to Baton Rouge to take on the No. 13 LSU Tigers on Saturday at noon on ESPN.
As we did with the last two games, let’s take a look at the teams’ respective four factors numbers, first as a straight-up comparison and then in the context of their opponent.
Four Factors: Straight-Up
Effective FG%
- Tennessee 56.1 (No. 12) (down from 56.5 (No. 8))
- LSU 52.7 (No. 93)
Prior opponents:
- Vanderbilt: 50.3 (No. 198)
- Kentucky: 52.8 (No. 93)
Conclusions: Its recent shooting woes notwithstanding, Tennessee is generally a much better shooting team than LSU, and the Tigers are about as good shooting the ball as is Kentucky.
Turnover %
- Tennessee 15.9 (No. 23) (down from 15.8 (No. 21))
- LSU 19.0 (No. 196)
Prior opponents:
- Vanderbilt: 19.9 (No. 255)
- Kentucky: 18.5 (No. 158)
Conclusions: The Vols protect the ball better than the Tigers, which are somewhere in between Tennessee’s last two opponents in that category.
Offensive Rebound %
- Tennessee 31.8 (No. 74) (down from 32.0 (No. 66))
- LSU 37.4 (No. 6)
Prior opponents:
- Vanderbilt: 28.6 (No. 178)
- Kentucky: 38.3 (No. 3)
Conclusions: LSU, which is essentially as good as Kentucky at getting offensive rebounds, has a distinct advantage over the Vols in this category.
Free Throw Rate
- Tennessee 35.3 (No. 127) (down from 36.0 (No. 107))
- LSU 39.8 (No. 29)
Prior opponents:
- Vanderbilt: 44.8 (No. 7)
- Kentucky: 41 (No. 22)
Conclusions: The same can be said for free throw rate, that LSU is essentially the same team as Kentucky. Fortunately for the Vols, Vanderbilt is even better at getting to the line than either team, and they struggled against the Vols this week.
Those are the straight-up comparisons of the teams’ respective averages in the four factors, but what about the fact that those numbers are impacted in any given game by the opponent?
Four Factors: Opponent impact
Effective FG%
When Tennessee has the ball
Tennessee’s EFG% is 56.1 (No. 12), while LSU’s defense against that is 50.9 (No. 183). Both Vanderbilt and Kentucky were better equipped to negatively impact Tennessee’s efficient shooting, so with that, the extra focus, and the extra rest this week, I’m expecting the Vols to shoot much better this weekend than they have the last couple of games.
When LSU has the ball
LSU’s shooting offense is 52.7 (No. 93), while Tennessee’s shooting defense is 46.9 (No. 31). The Tigers better than Vandy, but with the Vols’ shooting defense improving this week, LSU could struggle a little more than usual.
Conclusions
Tennessee’s usually potent offense shouldn’t be troubled too much by LSU’s defense. On the other side of the ball, LSU’s offense — which is fine but not elite — will find more resistance than usual from a Tennessee defense sporting a renewed focus.
Turnover %
When Tennessee has the ball
Tennessee’s turnover % is 15.9 (No. 23), while LSU’s turnover defense is 21.6 (No. 37). The Vols have been uncharacteristically sloppy the past couple of games, and LSU could have some say about the Vols that trend tomorrow.
When LSU has the ball
LSU’s turnover % isn’t great at 19.0 (No. 196), but Tennessee’s turnover defense isn’t much better, also at 19.0 (No. 158).
Conclusions
This game appears to feature a team in Tennessee that is good at protecting the ball going up against a team in LSU that is good at forcing turnovers, while on the other side of the ball, LSU likes to give it away but Tennessee doesn’t do much to force the issue. Hopefully, the Vols’ offense will be more in synch and will not give the game away by giving up too many turnovers on offense.
Offensive Rebounding %
When Tennessee has the ball
Tennessee’s OR% is 31.8 (No. 74), while LSU’s defense in that category is 31.0 (No. 286). So, the Vols aren’t especially good at this usually, but LSU may make it easier.
When LSU has the ball
LSU’s OR% is 37.4 (No. 6), while the Vols’ defense in that category is 30.3 (No. 260). This is the biggest statistical advantage in the game, and it belongs to LSU.
Conclusions
Tennessee will likely have more offensive rebounds than usual in this game, which is a good thing, but the numbers say the Vols are going to have real trouble keeping the Tigers from getting their own offensive rebounds. LSU’s shooting percentage isn’t scary enough to put all of the defensive energy into making them take tough shots. It might make more sense to devote marginally more energy to boxing out and preventing offensive rebounds.
Free Throw Rate
When Tennessee has the ball
Tennessee’s FT Rate is 35.3 (No. 127), while LSU’s defense against that is 34.1 (No. 207). Good news, this is more like Vanderbilt than Kentucky. Of course, the Vols didn’t really get to the line very much at all against Vanderbilt. Perhaps that will change against LSU.
When LSU has the ball
LSU’s FT Rate is 39.8 (No. 29). Tennessee’s ability to keep opponents off the foul line is 33.0 (No. 182). That, of course, is not very good at all, but it improved this week with an emphasis on doing so
The bad news is that Kentucky dominated Tennessee in this category. The good news is that the Vols nullified an even bigger advantage for Vandy in the last game.
Conclusions
Tennessee’s offense should be able to get to the line against LSU. The real question is the extent to which LSU will be able to do the same. We said prior to the Vanderbilt game that this area was going to be a real challenge for Tennessee but would also be a point of emphasis. That turned out to be the case, and the vulnerability was nullified. That should be the game plan again tomorrow. Defend without fouling, get the rebound.
Summary and Score Prediction
Tennessee’s biggest advantages in this game appear to be shooting offense and its own offensive rebounding. LSU’s biggest advantages appear to be its own offensive rebounding and getting to the line.
The goals for the Vols, then, should be to maximize their advantages in shooting and rebounding when they have the ball and to turn up the defense without fouling on the other end.
KenPom has Tennessee winning this one 81-79.
Go Vols.