Here’s the GRT Four Factors Forecast for Tennessee’s game against the Florida Gators tomorrow night.
Summary and Score Prediction
The good news: The Gators are somewhat turnover-prone, and the Vols’ defense is likely to inflame that a bit. Tennessee also appears to have a distinct advantage on the boards at both ends of the floor, and Florida’s propensity to foul will likely put Tennessee at the free throw line more often than usual. Plus, any advantage the Gators may have should be mitigated by the Vols’ terrific defense.
The bad news: The Gators shoot well, and if they are hot, they can make it a game.
The line isn’t out yet, but KenPom likes the Vols by 3 and puts the score at Tennessee 70, Florida 67, which translates into a 61% chance of winning.
Our new Hoops Statsy Preview Machine likes the Vols by 13 (Tennessee 75, Florida 62). For the last game against Vanderbilt, the Machine predicted a 21-point Vols win and a score of 78-57. Tennessee won by 20, 81-61.
Details below.
Baseline
Here’s what each team looks like at this point of the season.
Knee-jerk analysis: Pretty even on offense, but, as you’d expect, the Vols’ defense is much better. The Gators are also more likely to turn the ball over. Rebounding and free throws look basically even if you look at the teams in a vacuum. But see below for the opponent impact.
Four Factors: Straight-Up
Effective FG%
Conclusion: Florida shoots about like Tennessee, and about like Colorado among prior Vols’ opponents.
Turnover %
Conclusion: Most like Vanderbilt and App State in the turnovers department.
Offensive Rebound %
Conclusion: Most like Vandy and Missouri on the offensive boards.
Free Throw Rate
Conclusion: Hmm. Between Missouri and Alabama in getting to the free throw line, but not especially like either one of them.
Four Factors: Opponent impact
Effective FG%
Conclusions
The usual story here. Tennessee needs to improve its shooting, and Florida will present some resistance in that regard, but on the other end, the Vols are going to really make it difficult for the Gators to do as well as they usually do. Bottom line, Tennessee better than usual, but Florida worse.
Turnover %
Conclusions
Tennessee is still really excelling at turnovers, both in protecting its own and stealing its opponents’. The Gators aren’t bad at creating turnovers, but they’re teetering on bad at giving them up.
Offensive Rebounding %
Conclusions
That looks like a major advantage on the o-boards for the Vols and a less-pronounced advantage at the other end.
Free Throw Rate
Conclusions
Another huge advantage here for the good guys, as the Gators are likely to usher the Vols to the free throw line quite a bit. On the other end, Florida doesn’t get there especially often, and Tennessee isn’t likely to help.
Go Vols.