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Tennessee-Florida A&M four-factors preview: TCB

Here’s a look at the four factors numbers for Tennessee’s game tonight against Florida A&M. The conclusions are up front, and the details follow:

Summary and Score Prediction

The goals for the Vols:

  1. Make the most of their shooting advantages on both sides of the court.
  2. Make the most of their rebounding advantages on both sides of the court.
  3. Be aggressive and get to the foul line.
  4. Take care of business.

Prediction: Vols 79, A&M 50

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Prior opponents:

UNC Asheville54.341
VCU51117
Florida St.51118
Washington50.3133
Chattanooga48.5188
Murray St.48.1207
Alabama St.42.5327

Conclusion: To Tennessee, Florida A&M is most like Alabama State when it comes to Effective FG%.

Turnover %

Prior opponents:

Chattanooga18.9135
Florida St.19.4164
VCU19.9190
Washington20.4216
Murray St.20.4218
UNC Asheville20.7232
Alabama St.24.3333

Conclusion: Again, A&M basically looks like Alabama State from a Turnover % perspective.

Offensive Rebound %

Prior opponents:

Florida St.32.273
UNC Asheville31.489
Tennessee30.5115
VCU30126
Washington27.5198
Murray St.27.2201
Chattanooga25.5234
Alabama St.18.9343

Conclusion: Huh. These guys are rebounding as well as Washington. (But that’s not exactly as good as you might think it should be.)

Free Throw Rate

Prior opponents:

Murray St.4225
Florida St.39.354
Washington3961
VCU36.889
UNC Asheville36.690
Alabama St.34125
Chattanooga24.7304

Conclusion: These guys are most like VCU and UNC Asheville when it comes to free throws.

Those are the straight-up comparisons of the teams’ respective averages in the four factors, but what about the fact that those numbers are impacted in any given game by the opponent?

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s EFG% is 51.2 (No. 110), and it will be going up against a defense that is 53.9 (No. 297).

When Florida A&M has the ball

A&M’s EFG% is 39.3 (No. 347), while Tennessee’s shooting defense is 41.4 (No. 12). Tennessee should make it pretty difficult for the Rattlers.

Conclusions

Expect Tennessee to both shoot well and make it really difficult for A&M to shoot well.

Turnover %

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee is struggling with a turnover % of 20.1 (No. 201). A&M’s defensive counterpart to this stat is 20.9 (No. 118).

When A&M has the ball

FAMU’s turnover % is 22 (No. 296), while’s Tennessee’s ability to force turnovers is 18.8 (No. 199).

Conclusions

Tennessee needs to get its turnovers straightened out, and the Rattlers may provide an opportunity to make up some ground there.

Offensive Rebounding %

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s OR% is 30.5 (No. 115), while A&M’s defense in that category is 37.3 (No. 348).

When FAMU has the ball

The Rattlers’ OR% is 27.5 (No. 196), while the Vols’ defense in that category is 23.4 (No. 41).

Conclusions

The Vols have a huge advantage in rebounding on both sides of the court.

Free Throw Rate

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s FT Rate is 38.5 (No. 69), while Florida A&M’s defense against that is 38.2 (No. 285).

When A&M has the ball

The Rattlers’ FT Rate is 36.8 (No. 88), while Tennessee’s defense against that is 25.9 (No. 72).

Conclusions

Tennessee is really good at getting to the foul line, and A&M is pretty generous in that regard. The other side is pretty much even, so although the Rattlers are used to getting to the foul line themselves, the Vols are pretty good at defending without fouling.

Summary and Score Prediction

The Vols appear to have big advantages in shooting, rebounding, and getting to the foul line, all of which should make this a fairly easy game for the good guys tonight.

The goals for the Vols:

  1. Make the most of their shooting advantages on both sides of the court.
  2. Make the most of their rebounding advantages on both sides of the court.
  3. Be aggressive and get to the foul line.
  4. Take care of business.

KenPom gives Tennessee a 99% chance of winning and puts the score at Tennessee 79, Florida A&M 50. The current line is Tennessee -30.

Go Vols.