With the return of men’s basketball comes the return of the GRT Four Factors Gameplan. If you are unfamiliar with the concept of the Four Factors, you can read up on it here. It’s early in the season, so small sample sizes mean suspect conclusions, but here is the data we have so far and what it might mean for the game tomorrow against the Cincinnati Bearcats.
Summary and Score Prediction
The Vols have played only one game, and that after an extended break from practice due to pandemic-related stuff, but they do already have some to-dos. First, they need to shoot better from the field. They had a very poor night against Colorado, but really, they weren’t especially efficient much of last year, either. So I’d expect that getting good shots and knocking them down will be a priority tomorrow.
How might they do that? Solve the zone, which Colorado used effectively to slow down a Tennessee team that was threatening early to run away with it. The Vols should expect opponents to use the zone liberally until they find an effective counter.
Third, they need to kibosh the turnovers. This was a real problem last year and continued in the first game this year.
So here’s our humble suggestion on how to better enjoy the Cincinnati game tomorrow by knowing what to watch for:
- Once Cincinnati goes to a zone defense, watch the Vols closely. Expect them to try to get the ball into the middle of the zone, and this time, knock down those mid-range jumpers. Going to the bucket and drawing fouls could work, too.
- Limit the turnovers. This was (ahem) epidemic last year, and it’s time for a vaccine already. They don’t need to be the best in the nation at protecting the ball, but they need to stop being one of the worst. Ten to twelve per game would be much better than 15.
KenPom likes the Vols by 7 and puts the score at Tennessee 70, Cincinnati 63, which translates into a 74% chance of winning.
Baseline
First up, here’s what each team looks like at this point of the season.
The Vols’ shooting percentage from the field was terrible in the first game and was hopefully an aberration. Its defense was not and was hopefully a sign of things to come.
Four Factors: Straight-Up
Effective FG%
Conclusion: The Bearcats are shooting well so far; the Vols are not.
Turnover %
Conclusion: Ditto turnovers. One game does not a pattern make, but this was a problem for Tennessee last year, and it’s worth keeping a wary eye on.
Offensive Rebound %
Conclusion: Good news here, as Tennessee’s out of the 2020 gate with a decent offensive rebound percentage and tomorrow will be going up against a Cincinnati team that was merely okay on the boards.
Free Throw Rate
Conclusion: I wonder if the zone defense that Colorado played most of the first game is responsible for limited free throw attempts. I suspect we’ll get an opportunity to find out, as teams would probably be wise to continue to play zone until Tennessee proves they have an effective counter.
Four Factors: Opponent impact
Effective FG%
Conclusions
The Vols shot poorly in the opener, but Cincinnati’s defense isn’t anything to be overly concerned with, so let’s see what happens in the second game. And the Vols’ shooting defense figures to be really good this season and proved it in the first game. Expect the Bearcats to have trouble scoring.
Turnover %
Conclusions
The Vols turned the ball over too much in the first game and could find out in its second whether the problem is them or the competition. They are, so far, exceptional at creating turnovers, although Cincinnati is (also so far; I’ll stop saying this now) not bad at protecting the ball.
Offensive Rebounding %
Conclusions
It appears that Cincinnati could make it difficult for the Vols to nab offensive rebounds. We’ll see. On the other side, they haven’t been terrific getting their own, but the Vols so far (I lied) haven’t been very effective on the defensive boards.
Free Throw Rate
Conclusions
Perhaps getting to the free throw line will be easier for the Vols tomorrow. So far (!), they’re doing a fine job of defending without fouling.
Go Vols.