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Tennessee Bracket Math: Championship Week

Will Shelton

Jan 23, 2021; Knoxville, Tennessee, USA; Missouri Tigers guard Xavier Pinson (1) goes to the basket against Tennessee Volunteers guard Yves Pons (35) during the first half at Thompson-Boling Arena. Mandatory Credit: Randy Sartin-USA TODAY Sports

Two days off a huge Senior Day win over Florida, and one year removed from everything being shut down…this is a good week in Big Orange Country.

And of all the good things that have happened for Tennessee basketball in the last 15 years, the scenario this team finds itself in is actually the one we’ve experienced least. We’re much more familiar with…

Only twice in these last 15 years have the Vols found themselves in our current predicament: we know it may not be on the top lines of any region, but we know we’re in. And from this position, Tennessee actually had two of its best tournament opportunities.

In 2007, the Vols were 22-10 (10-6) on Selection Sunday. Chris Lofton sprained his ankle halfway through the year, and the Vols lost six of eight. But then they won seven of their next eight before the curse of the Georgia Dome got us again in the SEC Tournament. Tennessee earned a five seed, put up a then-school record 121 points on Long Beach State in the first round, and beat Virginia in the 4/5 second round game when Ryan Childress and Chris Lofton made eight straight free throws in the final 30 seconds. If you’re old enough, you know the pleasure and the pain of what happened next: the Vols jumped out to a 20-point lead on the Greg Oden/Mike Conley Ohio State Buckeyes, but lost 85-84. A bananas stat from that game: the Vols shot 16-of-31 from the arc but just 8-of-17 from the line.

Three years later, Tennessee got their revenge in similar fashion. This time Tennessee was 25-8 (11-5) on Selection Sunday, and felt disrespected in falling to the six line. The Vols battled through Kawhi Leonard and San Diego State in round one, then made the madness work in their favor, beating 14-seed Ohio after they disposed of 3-seed Georgetown. And then, the Buckeyes: Evan Turner scored 31, but the Vols traded San Antonio for Saint Louis in a 77-74 thriller. Two days later, the Vols were one possession from the Final Four.

So even if these Vols don’t earn the highest seed we’ve seen under Pearl, Cuonzo, or Barnes, there will be opportunities to advance. Where exactly will the Vols fall on the seed line? In the 117 brackets submitted on March 8 in the Bracket Matrix, Tennessee’s average seed is 5.67. The Vols are the top six seed there today, and the second five seed in Bart Torvik’s predictive bracketology. On Torvik’s site, Tennessee’s resume is most similar to teams that earn an average seed of 5.4 in the NCAA Tournament, so that all tracks.

When I played with the Teamcast yesterday at Torvik’s site, there are scenarios where each win in the SEC Tournament could be worth a seed, if chalk holds:

That’s a lot of ifs, especially for the SEC Tournament, especially for Tennessee in the SEC Tournament, and especially for a pandemic year. (Will Warren also wrote on this today, and has a more thorough summary of where the Vols might land based on different results in the SEC Tournament.)

For the field as a whole, there’s plenty to watch. Using Tennessee’s neighbors in the Bracket Matrix, here’s a viewing guide for the next few days of Championship Week. Generally speaking, you want the teams we’ve listed with the Bracket Matrix seeds in bold to lose, with the possible exceptions of Vol opponents like Colorado and Missouri.

Tuesday, March 9

Wednesday, March 10

Thursday, March 11

Enjoy the week.