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Tennessee-Auburn Four Factors Gameplan

Here’s the Four Factors Gameplan for Tennessee’s game tomorrow against the Auburn Tigers. As always, the conclusions are upfront, just after each team’s baseline, and the details follow:

Baseline

First up, here’s what each team is doing at this point in the season.

Auburn’s a better rebounding team and boy, do they shoot a lot of free throws. Other than that, things look kinda sorta even.

Summary and Score Prediction

The Auburn Tigers are on a bit of a skid here recently, having lost to two teams with losing records — Missouri and Georgia — by double digits the last two times they’ve taken the court. Prior to that, they were 22-2. Both losses could be attributed to missing Isaac Okoro, and at the time I’m writing this it’s unclear whether he’ll be back for the Tennessee game.

The numbers by themselves, though, suggest that Tennessee will have its hands full against an Auburn team elite at offensive rebounding and getting to the free-throw line. The Vols will have to minimize the damage done on those two fronts and hope that their still-stellar shooting defense and an increased focus on not turning the ball over are enough to make up for those disadvantages.

The goals for the Vols:

  1. Sharpen the sword of the shooting defense; it will be needed.
  2. Don’t turn the ball over as much as usual. Possessions will be especially valuable.
  3. Do what you can do in boxing out, rebounding the ball, and defending without fouling. This is where they’ll either beat you or give you the game.

KenPom gives this one to Auburn and puts the score at Auburn 69, Tennessee 63. That’s spittin’ distance, at least.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: Most like Wisconsin and Arkansas from a shooting perspective. Better than Tennessee, but not by a ton.

Turnover %

Conclusion: Most like UNC Asheville and VCU protecting the ball, and much better than Tennessee.

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: Oof. Most like LSU and Florida State, and waaaay to close to the top of that list that has almost always doomed this Vols team. In case you missed it, the Vols have only one win against roughly the top half of that list and have only one loss against roughly the bottom half. Bad news for the good guys Saturday.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: Double oof. Auburn is the best we’ve played all year at getting to the foul line.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

Conclusions

The Vols have generally put up poor shooting numbers this season. Auburn’s a decent defense, so they could make things difficult. But on the other end, Tennessee’s defense is elite, and Auburn’s shooting offense isn’t anything to write home about. We’re used to not shooting particularly well, but they could get frustrated.

Turnover %

Conclusions

Not much to see here, really, although after the tongue-lashing the guys got from Rick Barnes Tuesday night, I’d expect them to put a bit more focus on not turning the ball over, and they could have some success against an Auburn defense not especially good at forcing turnovers. On the other side of the court, it looks like an even matchup as well.

Offensive Rebounding %

Conclusions

This is where the Vols are likely doomed. Auburn is an elite offensive rebounding team, and over the course of the season, Tennessee has shown little ability to keep those kinds of teams from getting what they want on the offensive glass and winning the game because of it.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusions

There’s also much danger here, with Auburn a Top 3 team in the country at getting free shots and Tennessee all too willing to put them there.

Go Vols.