It’s been a busy week, so this is a Dragnet version of the Four Factors Forecast for this afternoon’s big game between projected 3-seed Tennessee and projected 1-seed Auburn at Thompson-Boling.
Score Prediction
The lines have the Vols as 3- to 3.5-point favorites.
KemPom projects a two-point win for the Vols — Tennessee 71, Auburn 69 — giving us a 60% chance of winning.
Hat Guy is once again at the wheel, and he likes Auburn by 4 before adjusting for home-court advantage, which according to KenPom is 3.8. Accounting for that, Hat Guy projects overtime with both teams at 74 at the end of regulation.
Baseline
Current numbers:
If you listened to the podcast this week, you’ll recall that we spent a fair amount of time wondering what the Kryptonite is for this Tennessee team. My current hypothesis is that the thing that gives the Vols the worst fits is guards who are tall and/or have a long reach. Auburn’s guards are 5’11” to 6’1″ and, presumably, not especially reachy, either, so maybe we’re in a Kryptonite-free zone this afternoon.
According to KenPom, Tennessee’s strength of schedule is ranked No. 7 and Auburn’s is ranked No. 32.
Four Factors: Straight-Up
Effective FG%
Turnover %
Offensive Rebound %
Free Throw Rate
Those are the straight-up comparisons. Let’s see what it all looks like with the opponent impact thrown in.
Four Factors: Opponent impact
Effective FG%
Oof. That’s a recipe for an afternoon of frustrating shooting for the Vols.
Turnover %
Offensive Rebounding %
Free Throw Rate
Go Vols.