Presenting the Four Factors Forecast for this afternoon’s game between Tennessee and Arkansas at Bud Walton Arena.
What to Watch
Rule No. 1: No dancing on that giant logo.
Rule No. 2: Avoid turnovers that lead to runaway rip-roaring for the home crowd.
Rule No. 3: Set the Anti-Rip-Roaring-inator on Willy-Nilly and deploy at will. (Try to get more offensive rebounds than usual.)
See Rules 4(a)-(e) below regarding fouls.
Score Prediction
KemPom projects a two-point win for the Vols tomorrow — Tennessee 71, Arkansas 69 — giving the good guys a 56% chance of winning. The lines have the Hogs as 2- to 2.5-point favorites. Expect a nail biter either way.
Baseline
Current numbers:
The Vols have a bit of an edge when shooting the three-ball, and the Hogs have a bit of an edge in both defensive boards and trips to the free-throw line.
Four Factors: Straight-Up
Effective FG%
So we’re a better shooting team than they are. Good to know. They’re not Arizona or Kentucky, but they do fit the profile of a team good enough to beat us at their place.
So, Rule No. 1: No dancing on the Hog logo. And that thing is so outrageously huge that looks like it’s eating the paint under one basket and . . . let’s call it making a mess . . . under the other. So, Revised Rule No. 1: No dancing anywhere.
Turnover %
We are basically the same team in different laundry when it comes to turnovers.
Rule No. 2: Be just a little bit better than usual protecting the ball. Turnovers lead not just to points, but to exciting points and a rip-roaring good time for the home crowd. Which leads to the officials feeling lonely and left out and wanting some of that applause for themselves. Which leads to foul trouble and (and free throws for the other team — see below) and still more rip-roaring. So, Revised Rule No. 2: Avoid Rip-Roaring by taking especially good care of the ball this afternoon.
Offensive Rebound %
This makes it look like we’re much better on the offensive boards than are the Feral Pigs. But if you look at the actual numbers up at the top of the post, you’ll see that the advantage really only adds up to half of an o-board per game.
So, Rule No. 3: Be just a little bit better than usual on the offensive glass. Every offensive rebound is an extra possession. It’s kind of like forcing a turnover except that you are (usually) immediately in the paint under the basket with the defense out of position. It frustrates and wears out the defense. It frustrates the crowd, deflates them, makes them suddenly aware that their feet are hurting from all that standing, and installs an obsession with consuming concessions in silence. Basically, offensive rebounds are Anti-Rip-Roaring Devices. Doofenshmirtz would call them Anti-Rip-Roaring-inators. So, Revised Rule No. 3: Set the Anti-Rip-Roaring-inator on Willy-Nilly and deploy at will.
Free Throw Rate
Ouch. Arkansas appears to have a major advantage at getting to the free-throw line. The actual numbers back that up, as the Razorbacks on average get to the stripe seven more times per game than the Vols do. In a predicted two-point contest, that’s a problem.
So, Rule No. 4: Stay in front of them. Remember the principle of verticality. No foolishness away from the basket like fouling jump shooters or moving screens. Stay out of the bonus and dial up the aggression in these areas only late in the halves and only if needed. On the other side, at every opportunity, yell at Chandler and Ziegler to turn on the jets and get to the hoop and even things out a bit.
Okay, we’ll call that Rules 4(a)-(e).
Those are the straight-up comparisons. Let’s see what it all looks like with the opponent impact thrown in.
Four Factors: Opponent impact
Effective FG%
I feel like Tennessee’s season-long eFG% numbers are still suffering from the periodic bouts of narcolepsy that plagued them early in the season. Regardless, Arkansas has a good defense from a shooting perspective. The antidote is crisp ball movement, getting to Jimmy Dykes’ favorite “third side of the floor,” and then choosing between open jump shots or our burners driving to the bucket and doing something happy when they get there.
When the Hogs have the ball, they’re not especially great shooters, so the Vols just need to do what they do.
Turnover %
Listen, there is some Rip-Roaring in the forecast, so just brace for it. We’re a little too careless with the ball, and Arkansas has the ability to turn that carelessness into absolute sloppiness. Minimizing the turnovers must be a priority.
On the other end, they’re about as careless as we are, but our guys have the ability to turn their carelessness into absolutely demoralizing chaos for them and obsession-with-concessions territory for us. Let’s do it.
Offensive Rebounding %
Okay, so those coveted offensive rebounds are not only usually hard to come by, the Razorbacks are going to make them especially rare. Like most (all?) of Doofenshmirtz’s -inator inventions, the Anti-Rip-Roaringinator may be thwarted by Agent P’s successor, Agent R. CURSE YOU, BIG RED THE RAZORBACK! (Seriously, though, celebrate every o-board we get. They’re valuable.)
Worse yet, offensive rebounds may be much easier to grab for the Hogs because we don’t put up much resistance.
Free Throw Rate
This is where the real problem is, I think. We should get to the free-throw line as often as usual, but the combination of them being really good at getting there and us being really bad at keeping opponents from there spells trouble. See Rules 4(a)-(e) above. The goal isn’t to win this mini-battle, but to minimize its impact.
Go Vols.