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It’s Fine-Tuning Season Now

KNOXVILLE, TN - FEBRUARY 12: Tennessee Volunteers head coach Rick Barnes coaches during the college basketball game between the Vanderbilt Commodores and Tennessee Volunteers on Feb 12, 2022, at Thompson-Boling Arena in Knoxville, TN. (Photo by Bryan Lynn/Icon Sportswire)

What’s next for this Tennessee team?

With five games to go, the Vols are 19-6 (10-3). Two of the remaining five are Tennessee’s first match-ups with the SEC’s basement: at Missouri (10-15) on Tuesday, at Georgia (6-20) the following Tuesday. Those, of course, need to be wins. The other three are Quad 1 opportunities, where the Vols are currently 5-6 on the year.

In the SEC, Tennessee is tied with Kentucky for second place at 10-3. The Vols are two games behind Auburn, but three games ahead of the double bye. The games with Arkansas will help decide who comes in fourth, but the Hogs also have a murderous finish (Tennessee, at Florida, Kentucky, LSU, at Tennessee).

Meanwhile, Auburn’s finish continues to reflect their easier strength of schedule: at Florida, Ole Miss, at Tennessee, at Mississippi State, South Carolina. The Tigers currently have the 13th-rated strength of schedule in the SEC. Even if they stumble once, the Vols would have to win out to tie them for the SEC title. It’s a big ask, though not an impossible one. But given the nature of the remaining schedule, the most readily available piece of satisfaction would be to beat Auburn in Knoxville next Saturday.

So the Vols appear safely headed somewhere between second and fourth in the SEC. What about March?

In the Bracket Matrix, Tennessee’s average seed is 3.45 among the 35 entries coming in after the Vols beat Kentucky. We share often the value of getting to at least a three seed in the NCAA Tournament, because it keeps you away from the very best teams in college basketball until at least the Elite Eight. That’s of particular value to a program who’s only been there once.

But in KenPom, the Vols already have wins over the second and third best teams in the nation. After that, the gap between number four (currently Baylor) and the Vols (currently ninth) is narrow: if those two teams met on the neutral floor of the NCAA Tournament, Baylor would only be a two-point favorite.

So sure, maybe the moral of this story is to avoid Gonzaga at all costs; in KenPom they’re still clearly the best team in the nation. But the Zags carry less mystique this year (perhaps ultimately to their benefit) because they’re merely 22-2 instead of 24-0 right now. And under Rick Barnes, the Vols have had relative success against Gonzaga (perhaps ultimately to our downfall if we’re a four seed in their region).

But for the first time since 2019 – and one of the few times in our history – it feels like the Vols have earned the kind of trust where the bracket matters less, and the way we’re playing matters more.

So what’s left to learn about the way Tennessee is playing?

Jonas Aidoo is the biggest question mark here. The 6’11” freshman played two minutes at South Carolina, his first appearance since December 14. He got a dozen minutes as the Vols first tried things without Olivier Nkamhoua in Starkville, turning in a respectable two points, four rebounds, and three fouls. Then he played just four minutes against Vanderbilt, suggesting Rick Barnes may continue to plug and play the bench based on matchups.

But he was a force against Kentucky in 18 minutes. The Vols went 10 deep against the Wildcats, with Aidoo seeing more minutes than Plavsic (13) or Huntley-Hatfield (9).

While Josiah-Jordan James was in foul trouble and played just 19 minutes, Kennedy Chandler and Santiago Vescovi got the 36-minute treatment. John Fulkerson averaged 17 minutes per game from January 18 through February 1, but since Nkamhoua’s injury he’s back up to 24 per game.

We know Tennessee’s closing lineup (Chandler, Zeigler, Vescovi, James, Fulkerson). And Tennessee’s starting lineup has remained unchanged since Nkamhoua’s injury (Chandler, Vescovi, James, Huntley-Hatfield, Plavsic). It’s a tone-setting group that allows both Fulkerson and Zeigler to provide a spark off the bench.

There’s less consistency now with Justin Powell’s minutes: 29 at Vanderbilt on January 18, 22 vs Florida the next week, then anywhere between 7-14 the last six games. Victor Bailey is giving Tennessee two minutes some nights and eight minutes others. Again, is it matchups, hot hands, defensive intensity, etc.?

If the Vols stay healthy, they have enough quality depth for these issues to be more curiosity than liability. But I am interested to see if a more consistent rotation arises in these last five games.

We’ll keep tracking the bracket math and all that good stuff on the way in; maybe Auburn will lose and make things interesting. But these Vols are good – really good – in both theory and practice. Whatever path is before them on Selection Sunday, this team has given us plenty of reasons to believe in them.