Once upon a time, the Tennessee Vols basketball team was ranked No. 1 in the nation for two straight weeks. Hey, that’s about as rare as a woo-less Rocky Top, so it was cause for celebration.
But honestly, the AP and Coaches Polls matter as much to college basketball as the points in Whose Line is it Anyway. Not only do they have zero impact on the crowning of the national champion, not even considered by the all-important folks sending out the save-the-dates come March.
Nope. The only thing that matters in college basketball is getting into the Big Dance and getting a cushy spot in the bracket. But is there really much of a difference between a 1-seed and a 2-seed? I’m going to repeat that question now as a heading because after all, it’s what this post is all about. Duh.
Do 1-seeds do any better in the Tournament than 2-seeds?
A lot of stuff can happen late in the season just prior to Selection Sunday, but how important is it for fans to root for their team to earn a No. 1 seed?
Pretty important, as it turns out. Here’s a look at the seeds of the winners, the runners-up, and other Final Four participants since the Tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985:
| Year | Winner | Runner-Up | FF Semi | FF Semi | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | Virginia | 1 | Texas Tech | 3 | Michigan St. | 2 | Auburn | 5 |
| 2018 | Villanova | 1 | Michigan | 3 | Kansas | 1 | Loyola-Chicago | 11 |
| 2017 | North Carolina | 1 | Gonzaga | 1 | South Carolina | 7 | Oregon | 3 |
| 2016 | Villanova | 2 | North Carolina | 1 | Oklahoma | 2 | Syracuse | 10 |
| 2015 | Duke | 1 | Wisconsin | 1 | Kentucky | 1 | Michigan State | 7 |
| 2014 | Connecticut | 7 | Kentucky | 8 | Florida | 1 | Wisconsin | 2 |
| 2013 | Louisville | 1 | Michigan | 4 | Syracuse | 4 | Wichita State | 9 |
| 2012 | Kentucky | 1 | Kansas | 2 | Ohio State | 2 | Louisville | 4 |
| 2011 | Connecticut | 3 | Butler | 8 | Kentucky | 4 | VCU | 11 |
| 2010 | Duke | 1 | Butler | 5 | West Virginia | 2 | Michigan State | 5 |
| 2009 | North Carolina | 1 | Michigan State | 2 | Connecticut | 1 | Villanova | 3 |
| 2008 | Kansas | 1 | Memphis | 1 | North Carolina | 1 | UCLA | 1 |
| 2007 | Florida | 1 | Ohio State | 1 | UCLA | 2 | Georgetown | 2 |
| 2006 | Florida | 3 | UCLA | 1 | LSU | 4 | George Mason | 11 |
| 2005 | North Carolina | 1 | Illinois | 1 | Louisville | 4 | Michigan State | 5 |
| 2004 | Connecticut | 2 | Georgia Tech | 3 | Oklahoma State | 2 | Duke | 1 |
| 2003 | Syracuse | 3 | Kansas | 2 | Texas | 1 | Marquette | 3 |
| 2002 | Maryland | 1 | Indiana | 5 | Kansas | 1 | Oklahoma | 2 |
| 2001 | Duke | 1 | Arizona | 2 | Maryland | 3 | Michigan State | 1 |
| 2000 | Michigan State | 1 | Florida | 5 | North Carolina | 8 | Wisconsin | 8 |
| 1999 | Connecticut | 1 | Duke | 1 | Michigan State | 1 | Ohio State | 4 |
| 1998 | Kentucky | 2 | Utah | 3 | North Carolina | 1 | Stanford | 3 |
| 1997 | Arizona | 4 | Kentucky | 1 | North Carolina | 1 | Minnesota | 1 |
| 1996 | Kentucky | 1 | Syracuse | 4 | Massachusetts | 1 | Mississippi State | 5 |
| 1995 | UCLA | 1 | Arkansas | 2 | Oklahoma State | 4 | North Carolina | 2 |
| 1994 | Arkansas | 1 | Duke | 2 | Florida | 3 | Arizona | 2 |
| 1993 | North Carolina | 1 | Michigan | 1 | Kansas | 2 | Kentucky | 1 |
| 1992 | Duke | 1 | Michigan | 6 | Indiana | 2 | Cincinnati | 4 |
| 1991 | Duke | 2 | Kansas | 3 | North Carolina | 1 | UNLV | 1 |
| 1990 | UNLV | 1 | Duke | 3 | Arkansas | 4 | Georgia Tech | 4 |
| 1989 | Michigan | 3 | Seton Hall | 3 | Duke | 2 | Illinois | 1 |
| 1988 | Kansas | 6 | Oklahoma | 1 | Duke | 2 | Arizona | 1 |
| 1987 | Indiana | 1 | Syracuse | 2 | Providence | 6 | UNLV | 1 |
| 1986 | Louisville | 2 | Duke | 1 | Kansas | 1 | LSU | 11 |
| 1985 | Villanova | 8 | Georgetown | 1 | St John's | 1 | Memphis State | 2 |
And here’s how all of that data breaks down into categories:
| Winners | Runners-Up | Final Four Semis | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 seeds | 22 | 63% | 13 | 37% | 23 | 33% |
| 2 seeds | 5 | 14% | 7 | 20% | 16 | 23% |
| 3 seeds | 4 | 11% | 7 | 20% | 6 | 9% |
| 4 seeds | 1 | 3% | 2 | 6% | 10 | 14% |
| 5+ seeds | 3 | 9% | 6 | 17% | 15 | 21% |
| Total | 35 | 35 | 70 |
Whoa. A full 62% of the winners were No. 1 seeds, and there’s a huge drop off for 2-seeds, who won the whole enchilada only 15% of the time. The advantage of seeding for the rest of the Final Four field isn’t quite as pronounced, but it’s there, and it’s significant
Sure, every once in a while some 11-seed will crash the party with a scrappy nun in tow and scare the pants off everybody, but the final weekend features the No Surprises All-Star team. And more often than not, the team cutting down the net in April is one that was sitting pretty on the top line on Selection Sunday.