Joel Hollingsworth

  • It sort of has strength of schedule built in because it’s not ranking teams or figuring out how good they are, per se. They just see how they’ve done against the teams most similar to the one they’re playing. But it does not account for the strength of schedule of the comps, no.

  • The statistical comps for this Saturday’s matchup between the Tennessee Volunteers and the Missouri Tigers are all over the place. Part of the noise is likely due to Tennessee’s accelerated improvement curve under […]

    • My gut tells me we are going to see a game similar to West Virginia, but with a much improved Tennessee Team on the defensive side. I am guessing it will be Vols 31, Tigers 24. Hoping we can get them so the Vandy game isn’t a “make or break” for a bowl trip. Go Vols!!

    • Does SPM take into account strength of schedule/opponent?

      I think that may be your problem. Against bottom feeders they’ve put up obscene numbers but against real competition they’ve had trouble figuring out what they want to do.

      If there is one word to describe this Mizzou team it’s clearly going to be ‘inconsistent’.

      • It sort of has strength of schedule built in because it’s not ranking teams or figuring out how good they are, per se. They just see how they’ve done against the teams most similar to the one they’re playing. But it does not account for the strength of schedule of the comps, no.

        • I mean, that would make things many order of magnitude more complex while it’s actually been a really solid system thus far.

          Who knows, perhaps Mizzou rolls out there and beats us by 4 TDs and we’re all left thinking it’s the best system ever on Sunday.

    • And, FWIW… I think this is either our coming out party with multiple turnovers and short fields resulting in a win of ~42-14 or Mizzou shows up and we struggle to keep up with something like 49-28 Mizzou.

      • I suppose I should get into specifics with such wide variance on my prediction.

        I truly believe Dooley is in the wrong profession. The man would be an excellent lawyer, jurist or politician with a great and broad set of abilities akin to a reinassance man. But he simply questions his own decisions too much and fails to filter out the noise in the same way people like Saban, Cutcliffe and Pruitt do. He changes his entire offensive scheme based on one or two bad plays. One reason I REALLY like Helton is because he builds his offensive scheme and plan around the entire game. He understands enough about his own team’s defense and can see when a good playcall is snuffed out by things likenfailures in execution to construct an appropriate plan and understand when to continue doing what he is doing.

        I’ve watched a lot of Mizzou film this week and Dooley’s offenses fail to find rhythm because he wildly changes his goals and vision from drive to drive. Backs get pulled too soon or his offense gives up a single sack on an otherwise solid drive through the air so on the next he runs on 1st and 2nd down before making a desperation call on 3rd down. He thinks about plays while Helton thinks about drives and games.

        So if Mizzou’s offense gets on track early and Dooley stays confident in his playcalling things could become very difficult for us. However, if we cause headaches early he will get into his own head and begin to waste entire drives through his own playcalls.

        So I see either their offense living up to it’s potential and we have trouble keeping up, or they slowly implode until the game gets out of hand in the late 3rd/early 4th quarter.

  • There’s not a lot going on prior to Saturday, so if you need to get some stuff done, use your Thursday and Friday well.
    Gameday

     

    The noon slate features a couple of past Vols’ opponents in Florida and […]

  • It’s time to check in on the Vols’ rankings in all of the official NCAA statistical rankings.
    Offense

    Defense

    Special Teams

    Turnovers and Penalties
    

     

    • I absolutely love seeing these each week, but on my browser I can’t see anything after the GA game. The picture cuts off, and it doesn’t scroll or anything.

  • My new expected win total:

    This week: 6.1
    Last week: 5.3
    After Week 9: 5.55
    After Week 8: 6.0
    After Week 7: 6.3
    After Week 6: 5.0
    After Week 5: 4.9
    After Week 4: 4.55
    After Week 3: […]

    • 6.1 up slightly with MO = 50%, Vandy = 60%… got us bowling, but it all depends on which Vol Team shows up down the stretch and if the scheme is a good match. I am betting on the Vols taking at least one and hoping for both!! Go Vols!!

    • I came to 5.9 this week. I’m hopeful but still wary. I want to see the kind of play like Saturday 2 weeks in a row. If they do that, we will he bowl eligible after this week and looking for a winning record against Vandy. I feel like we have yet to see the same team for consecutive games yet. They have been very up and down. But the O-line and defense give me hope that 7-5 is more than possible. I feel like a chemically unbalanced girlfriend. One minute I’m up the next I’m down.

    • I’m at 6.05. I’ve still got Mizzou at 45% because I don’t like the match-up. But the real question with both of these games is how confident are we the team that showed up on Saturday will show up again the next two weeks? Because if that happens, we handle Vandy. I’ve got that one at 60%, which I think is as high as I’ve had it since preseason.

    • 5.83 here.

      Mizzou just feels like a supremely bad matchup, so I’ve got them at 33%.

      I’ve obviously watched more Vandy than most folks around here…their offense can be legit, it’s the defense that is a bit sketchy. They’re not as explosive as Mizzou, but I feel a bit like that one can be a shootout, too, and I’m not sure UT is designed to win those. 50%.

    • 5.90 – 30% Mizzou (bad matchup); 60% Vandy. Love that we are playing our best football at the end of the season and have progressed each game (except Charlotte). I’d love to bowl and get the 15 practices. Would make a huge difference into 2019.

    • 6.2

      I bumped Mizzou a hair higher because of their bad passing defense.

    • Pre-season: 5.12
      Post-WVU: 4.98
      Post-ETSU: 4.84
      Post-UTEP: 4.65
      Post-Florida: 4.01
      Post-Georgia: 4.20
      Post-bye: 4.63
      Post-Auburn: 5.58
      Post-Alabama: 5.48
      Post-South Carolina: 5.08
      Post-Charlotte: 5.00
      Now: 6.00

      My remaining individual game confidence levels are now Mizzou 40 (up from 30), and Vandy 60.

      How I have picked each UT game in the Pick ‘Em contest versus actual results:

      West Virginia 40, Tennessee 14 (picked WVU for 14 points)
      Tennessee 59, ETSU 3 (picked Tennessee for 20)
      Tennessee 24, UTEP 0 (picked Tennessee for 18, two games canceled for weather)
      Florida 47, Tennessee 21 (picked Florida for 7)
      Georgia 38, Tennessee 12 (picked Georgia for 20)
      Tennessee 30, Auburn 24 (picked Auburn for 18)
      Alabama 58, Tennessee 21 (picked Alabama for 20)
      South Carolina 27, Tennessee 24 (picked South Carolina for 15)
      Tennessee 13, Charlotte 3 (picked Tennessee for 20)
      Tennessee 24, Kentucky 7 (picked Kentucky for 8)

    • I’m not convinced that the Mizzou matchup is as bad as everyone seems to believe.

      Yes, on the surface it appears we’ll have difficulty keeping up with a balanced and explosive offense but the numbers look a little different on a deeper dive.

      Mizzou is mediocre against the pass according to some of the same deeper metrics that showed chinks in Kentucky’s armor. That’s not to say that they couldn’t just show up and have a day where everyone is in a rhythm, but there is an underlying inconsistency in everything they do. Frankly, I think Dooley has turned what should be a great offense into one that is simply good.

      Their big offensive issue is a lack of consistency. This is a team that puts the ball on the ground ~1.5 times per game and throws a pick nearly once a game. Drew Lock is a very good QB, but he’s getting fewer YPA than Guarantano and is less efficient in every phase despite having far more time to throw. One reason I blame Dooley is that he’s consistently made his least explosive WRs primary targets. Emmanuel Hall is averaging nearly double the YPG as any other pass catcher while getting a hair over 10% of the targets. When your #4 WR is getting 21ypc while your #1 is at 10.8ypc, something stinks.

      The run game is what worries me here… 286 vs. SC, 221 vs. UF and 253 vs. Vandy gives me pause. If Mizzou wins in Knoxville it’s because they were able to run the ball effectively. But there is also the 84 yard game vs. Kentucky. So who really knows? What little I do know says that we’ll have the best scheme possible to slow down the run, it just needs to be executed by the eleven on the field.

      I also question the ability of their DBs to cover downfield, seems like a place we’ll have opportunities on Saturday afternoon. Purdue had 572 through the air against them so there will be opportunities.

      FWIW, I also think this is the week Notre Dame loses. Syracuse is dangerous, it’s on the road and I’m not sure they’re mentally ready to be heavy road favorites against a team that dangerous.

  • Well, the Big Blue Nation didn’t have the most productive week, but the Big Blue Shells had their way, blowing up two leaders and making way for Will Shelton to take the lead in the Gameday on Rocky Top Guessing […]

  • Congratulations to vols95, who finished first this week in the Gameday on Rocky Top Pick ‘Em contest with a record of 18-2 and 203 confidence points. He or she gets a Gameday on Rocky Top t-shirt from our custom t […]

    • Well I am really starting to hate that week where I was unable to make any picks. After winning two weeks this season I might have had a shot for the year. I know this is not Vegas, but it could still feel good. Plus, I haven’t won this in (insert pretty much any exponent here) the time I have been guessing in previous years. However, if we can somehow manage to figure out consistency and get to 7-5 I really do not care where I finish.

  • It’s Gameday on Rocky Top, with the 4-5 (1-4) Tennessee Vols hosting the 7-2 (5-2) and 11th-ranked Kentucky Wildcats on the SEC Network. Here’s the Gameday Gameplan for Vols fans. Where and when to find the Vols […]

    • wooooooo!!!! That sweet smell of victory!

      2 wins over ranked teams this year is not what I expected to see before the season.

      And 1 win away from bowl eligibility with 2 games to play. Both are winnable games too. This gonna be an exciting ending. Fingers crossed for continued greatness and improvement this season!

      GO BIG ORANGE!

  • Which is greater, Tennessee’s passing yards or Kentucky’s rushing yards? Tennessees passing yards 10 points

    How many combined sacks and tackles for loss does Kentucky’s Josh Allen get? 4-5 10 points

    How do the Vols score their first touchdown? A passing play 10 points

  • It’s time for this week’s edition of the GRT Guessing Game. If you are new here and have no idea what this is all about, you can find out everything you need to know here. Last week’s results are here.
    Let’sa […]

    • Which is greater, Tennessee’s passing yards or Kentucky’s rushing yards? Tennessees passing yards 10 points

      How many combined sacks and tackles for loss does Kentucky’s Josh Allen get? 4-5 10 points

      How do the Vols score their first touchdown? A passing play 10 points

    • Which is greater, Tennessee’s passing yards or Kentucky’s rushing yards? Tennessees passing yards 10 points

      How many combined sacks and tackles for loss does Kentucky’s Josh Allen get? 6 or more 15 points

      How do the Vols score their first touchdown? A passing play 10 points

      Gotta do better this week. Don’t think I can maintain my lead with another 0 for 3 showing!

    • Which is greater, Tennessee’s passing yards or Kentucky’s rushing yards? Kentuckys rushing yards 10 points

      How many combined sacks and tackles for loss does Kentucky’s Josh Allen get? 4-5 10 points

      How do the Vols score their first touchdown? A passing play 10 points

    • Kentucky, 1-3, running

    • KY Rushing; 4-5; passing

    • I always forget about this thing, which is probably for the better as I don’t really understand the scoring system at all. Anyway….

      Which is greater, Tennessee’s passing yards or Kentucky’s rushing yards? Tennessees passing yards 10 points

      How many combined sacks and tackles for loss does Kentucky’s Josh Allen get? 6 or more 15 points

      How do the Vols score their first touchdown? A running play 10 points

    • UT pass, 1-3, passing

    • 1) Vols passing yards
      2) 1-3 Josh Allen sacks/TFL
      3) 1st UT TD = pass play

      Go Vols!

    • Kentuckys rushing yards 10 points, 1-3 10 points, A passing play 10 points.

    • Which is greater, Tennessee’s passing yards or Kentucky’s rushing yards? Tennessees passing yards 10 points

      How many combined sacks and tackles for loss does Kentucky’s Josh Allen get? 1-3 10 points

      How do the Vols score their first touchdown? A passing play 10 points

    • Which is greater, Tennessee’s passing yards or Kentucky’s rushing yards? Kentuckys rushing yards 10 points

      How many combined sacks and tackles for loss does Kentucky’s Josh Allen get? 6 or more 15 points

      How do the Vols score their first touchdown? A passing play 10 points

      Where is the option for “the Vols don’t score a touchdown 🙁 ” ?

      I wouldn’t have picked it anyway, but, you know… 😉

    • I missed last week’s edition 🙁 work is so overrated, especially with guessing games to play!

      TN Passing, 1-3, Passing

    • Vols Passing

      4-5

      Passing Play

  • The SPM was the bearer of bad news last week in advance of the Tennessee-Charlotte game, and although you can’t really say it nailed the thing, it was saner than most of us Tennessee fans.

    This week, the SPM […]

    • Harley replied 1 week ago

      I will forever trust the SPM and hope the Vols get a few breaks so the score swings to our favor… Go Vols!

  • Thursday, Friday

     

     

    Hey, football’s almost over. Squeeze it in while you can. Don’t dwell on the fact that Syracuse is No. 13 and Fresno State is ranked.
    Gameday

     

    The main thing to wa […]

  • What you’re hoping to see here is progress, both from 2017 and from the end of the difficult October slate to last week’s Homecoming game.
    Offense

    This is a mixed bag, at least when comparing post-Charlotte […]

  • Displaced_Vol_Fan maintains the lead after this week’s action despite going 0-for-3 on the questions, thanks to a couple of timely mushrooms and a blue shell welcoming a new leader by blowing him up.

    Here’s the […]

  • Congratulations to Fightin Walking Horses, who finished first this week in the Gameday on Rocky Top Pick ‘Em contest with a stellar record of 19-1 and 205 confidence points. He gets a Gameday on Rocky Top […]

  • Yeah, it was 7th when I did the statsy preview last week. With the exception of UTEP, our opponents all have good records. Even ETSU, although I don’t know if they count in the calculation.

  • What are Tennessee’s chances for bowl eligibility with three games remaining? It depends on how you view the Vols’ outing against Charlotte, how their past opponents looked this past weekend, and how those three […]

    • I am sitting 5.56 this week. Hoping our banged up players can get well, and i would love to see our offensive line somehow not be a liability for the next 3 games.

    • I’m at 5.25. It’ll be interesting at the end of the year to look at our strength of schedule. The top is business as usual, but the middle tier of our schedule is tougher than in recent years

    • I’ve dropped to 4.8. I think we have seen our last win for this season. The team seems to have regressed. I know the loss of Trey Smith was huge, but the way the line played this week was absolutely atrocious. There is no excuse for there not being any improvement by anyone on this line. Drew Richmond should be allowed to finish his degree, but should never see the football field again for UT (barring another catastrophic injury and even then I’d convert a couple D-linemen first). If there is a bigger disappointment as far as football expectations in the last 10 years, I don’t know who it would be. I have not been impressed by Will Friend, maybe it’s not his fault, but we should have seen some improvement on the OL. If they still don’t know WHO to block, then that is straight up coaching, that’s not about talent. If it’s not coaching, then it has to be lack of intelligence on the players, and I just don’t believe they are all stupid young men. And the bad part is, we are still 2 years away from having enough SEC caliber O-linemen to compete there, so I fear we have more of the same coming next year. I hope I’m just being overly pessimistic and I’m wrong.

    • Pre-season: 5.12
      Post-WVU: 4.98
      Post-ETSU: 4.84
      Post-UTEP: 4.65
      Post-Florida: 4.01
      Post-Georgia: 4.20
      Post-bye: 4.63
      Post-Auburn: 5.58
      Post-Alabama: 5.48
      Post-South Carolina: 5.08
      Now: 5.00

      My remaining individual game confidence levels are now Kentucky 20 (down from 25), Mizzou 30 (down from 35), and Vandy 50.

      How I have picked each UT game in the Pick ‘Em contest versus actual results:

      West Virginia 40, Tennessee 14 (picked WVU for 14 points)
      Tennessee 59, ETSU 3 (picked Tennessee for 20)
      Tennessee 24, UTEP 0 (picked Tennessee for 18, two games canceled for weather)
      Florida 47, Tennessee 21 (picked Florida for 7)
      Georgia 38, Tennessee 12 (picked Georgia for 20)
      Tennessee 30, Auburn 24 (picked Auburn for 18)
      Alabama 58, Tennessee 21 (picked Alabama for 20)
      South Carolina 27, Tennessee 24 (picked South Carolina for 15)
      Tennessee 13, Charlotte 3 (picked Tennessee for 20)

    • Total Wins 5.2. I have KY=40, MO=30, Vandy=50… tough year; was hoping for better. Prove me wrong… Go Vols!

    • Down to 5.0 from 5.10. I think we are poised for a great defensive turnaround which will at least keep the games as possible wins for a little longer while we hang onto the bowl dream. We’ve held 5 teams under 126 rushing yards (W Va, ETSU, UTEP, Auburn, Charlotte). While last year’s Vols gave up 289 (8.0); 433 (8.2) and 246 (5.7) rushing yards to UK, Mizzou & Vandy. [You remember last year’s defense, right? Coach Jones, Coach Shoop, meet General Sherman, What? Yes you can smoke his cigar as you watch the fires burn…]

      • It’s really odd that Shoop has been great at every stop, including his current one at Mississippi State (currently top 20 in rushing, passing, total, and scoring defense), but was awful at UT.

        It makes you realize/appreciate that there must have been some serious dysfunction in the overall administration of the program.

  • It’s Gameday on Rocky Top, with the 3-5 (1-4) Tennessee Vols hosting the 4-4 (3-2) Charlotte 49ers at 4:00 on the SEC Network Alternate channel. Here’s the Gameday Gameplan for Vols fans. Where and when to find […]

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