Gonzaga will be the third KenPom Top 50 opponent the Vols have faced in their first eight games. But we’re only scheduled to face three others between mid-December and mid-February. Tennessee’s SEC schedule is back-loaded this year: both dates with Kentucky fall in the last seven games, and the regular season ends with Mississippi State and Auburn. Other than those three conference foes, the only current KenPom Top 50 teams left on the schedule are Florida (January 12 & February 9) and West Virginia (January 26).
If Tennessee is thinking about a one seed and wants to get there via something other than a run at an undefeated season in SEC play, this would be a good win to get. When it’s the team with #1 next to their name on the other side, you typically don’t need additional motivation. But the Vols, having already flirted with #2 Kansas, have earned the right to think about more than just beating the top team for a day.
To do that? Defense better travel.
Gonzaga is number one in KenPom’s offensive ratings. They hung 91 on Arizona, 89 on Duke, and 103 on Creighton. The Bulldogs shoot 38.8% from three and 61.2% from two. The latter is second-best in the country, and the two combine to give Gonzaga the nation’s fourth best effective field goal percentage. They’re also 13th in turnover percentage, giving the ball away on just 14.7% of possessions.
The Vols have experience facing such a great offense: last year KenPom’s top two offenses belonged to Villanova and Purdue. For Gonzaga, Rui Hachimura gets top billing here – leading scorer, hit the game-winner against Washington on Wednesday – but KenPom loves what Brandon Clarke, Zach Norvell, and Josh Perkins are doing behind him.
Hachimura is more of a volume scorer and gets to the line. If you want raw efficiency, Brandon Clarke is 62-of-86 (72.1%) on the year, 14th nationally in effective field goal percentage and 25th in offensive rebounding percentage. Throw in 6’11” Filip Petrusev off the bench, and the Vols will have their hands full on the defensive interior. It’s easy to spend too much time on Hachimura and simply get beat by Clarke instead.
Luckily, the Vols will bring Grant Williams, Admiral Schofield, and Kyle Alexander to the party. These match-ups when Gonzaga has the ball should be so much fun to watch. Unlike going against Kansas or North Carolina the last two years, the Vols and Gonzaga are built much more in each other’s image: lineups full of upperclassmen, guys who play well together, and multiple ways to beat you.
If the Vols can work Gonzaga to a draw inside, you still have to defend Norvell and Perkins in the back court. Norvell is the designated three-point shooter, launching 8.7 per game and hitting 38.5%. Perkins is the senior point guard, 33rd nationally in assist rate and also plenty capable from three (38.9% on four attempts per game) and a 90% free throw shooter. There are no weak spots, and those four guys all run 26-32 minutes per game.
The good news: Tennessee is 12th nationally in defensive efficiency. The Vols are capable of defending well enough to win this thing.
Is Gonzaga? They beat Duke in part because R.J. Barrett went 9-of-25 and the Blue Devils didn’t defend well against Gonzaga’s ball screens. They bested Creighton by getting to the line 17 more times than their opponent. And their last-second win over Washington included Gonzaga shooting 19-of-19 at the line.
I expect Tennessee to offer a greater challenge on the defensive end than Washington, Creighton, and Duke-in-Maui (as opposed to Duke-in-March). And the Vols should also be just as capable, if not more so, of attacking on the offensive end. Gonzaga does not force turnovers, 295th nationally. Opportunities should be there for Tennessee to run its offense and take advantage, even if Lamonte Turner is still limited.
Perhaps the biggest question for this game: who wins the shot-blocking/foul-calling battle? Gonzaga is 48th in shot-blocking percentage and 41st in fewest shots blocked. The Vols are 23rd in shot-blocking percentage and fourth in the nation in fewest shots blocked, getting rejected on just 3.8% of attempts. Tennessee is slightly better at shot-blocking, Gonzaga slightly better at getting to the line. But the single best player at getting to the line in this game is still Grant Williams.
This one should be all kinds of fun. Kansas proved we’re at the point where we can take Tennessee quite seriously in beating the number one team in the nation. Let’s go do it.
Sunday, 3:00 PM in Phoenix, where great things involving number one teams have happened to this university before. Put some orange in your Advent wardrobe on Sunday morning.
Go Vols.
I’ll reserve final judgment until after Sunday, but my sneaking suspicion is that the Vols can be good without Turner, but they can only be elite if Turner is truly back and playing well.
My concern right now is that his shoulder issues will linger and he’ll never quite be right this year. That puts a lot of pressure on Bone and to some extent Bowden to be on the ball, initiate the offense, and hit perimeter shots to make it easier for Grant and Admiral to operate.
I’d love to be wrong!
Great article, Will. Spent a little time over at The Slipper Still Fits. We have our work cut out for us tomorrow afternoon.
I think we are going to see an incredible game tomorrow. I hope that the good guys come out on top in this one!