Football

Updated projected win totals for the Vols after Kentucky

Written by Joel Hollingsworth on

More in Football:

My new expected win total:

  • This week: 6.1
  • Last week: 5.3
  • After Week 9: 5.55
  • After Week 8: 6.0
  • After Week 7: 6.3
  • After Week 6: 5.0
  • After Week 5: 4.9
  • After Week 4: 4.55
  • After Week 3: 5.5

With the Vols looking good this week against Kentucky, and with Missouri and Vanderbilt coming down to the wire, I’m changing the Missouri game back to 50% (from 40% last week) and Vanderbilt back to 60% (from 50% last week.) They are basically both tossups, but the Vols have shown that they can get things done. Whether they can do it consistently yet is the question.

Use the form below to calculate your expected win total and post it in the comments below the post.

Explanations are below, but here’s the updated chart for this week:

Tennessee Volunteers currently

Current record: 5-5 (2-4), 5th in the SEC East

  • Lost to #17 WVU*, 40-14
  • Beat ETSU, 59-3
  • Beat UTEP, 24-0
  • Lost to Florida, 47-21
  • Lost to #2 Georgia, 38-12
  • Beat #21 Auburn, 30-24
  • Lost to #1 Alabama, 58-21
  • Lost to South Carolina, 27-24
  • Beat Charlotte, 14-3
  • Beat No. 11 Kentucky, 24-7
  • Missouri
  • Vanderbilt

The Vols’ past opponents

West Virginia Mountaineers

Current record: 8-1 (6-1), 1st in Big 12, #7

  • Beat Tennessee*, 40-14
  • Beat YSU, 52-17
  • NC State, Canceled
  • Beat Kansas St, 35-6
  • Beat #25 Texas Tech, 42-34
  • Beat Kansas, 38-22
  • Lost to Iowa State, 30-14
  • Bye
  • Beat Baylor, 58-14
  • Beat #17 Texas, 42-41
  • Beat TCU, 47-10
  • Oklahoma St.
  • Oklahoma

These guys are legit. We’ll know just how legit over the next couple of weeks.

East Tennessee State Buccaneers

Current record: 8-2 (6-1), 1st in Southern

UTEP Miners

Current record: 1-9 (1-5), 6th in C-USA – West

Um, not legit.

Florida Gators

Current record: 7-3 (5-3), 2nd in SEC – East, #15

  • Beat Charleston So, 53-6
  • Lost to Kentucky, 27-16
  • Beat Colorado St, 48-10
  • Beat Tennessee, 47-21
  • Beat #14 Miss St, 13-6
  • Beat #5 LSU, 27-19
  • Beat Vanderbilt, 37-27
  • Bye
  • Lost to #7 Georgia, 36-17
  • Lost to Missouri, 38-17
  • Beat South Carolina, 35-31
  • Idaho
  • Florida State

Georgia Bulldogs

Current record: 9-1 (7-1), 1st in SEC – East, #5

Auburn Tigers

Current record: 6-4 (3-4), 4th in SEC – West

  • Beat #6 Washington*, 21-16
  • Beat Alabama St, 63-9
  • Lost to #12 LSU, 22-21
  • Beat Arkansas, 34-3
  • Beat Southern Miss, 24-13
  • Lost to Miss St, 23-9
  • Lost to Tennessee, 30-24
  • Beat Ole Miss, 31-16
  • Bye
  • Beat #20 Texas A&M, 28-24
  • Lost to Georgia, 27-10
  • Liberty
  • Alabama

Alabama Crimson Tide

Current record: 10-0 (7-0), 1st in SEC – West, #1

  • Beat Louisville*, 51-14
  • Beat Arkansas St, 57-7
  • Beat Ole Miss, 62-7
  • Beat #22 Texas A&M, 45-23
  • Beat Louisiana, 56-14
  • Beat Arkansas, 65-31
  • Beat Missouri, 39-10
  • Beat Tennessee, 58-21
  • Bye
  • Beat #3 LSU, 29-0
  • Beat # 16 Mississippi State, 24-0
  • The Citadel
  • Auburn

South Carolina Gamecocks

Current record: 5-4 (4-4), 4th in SEC – East

  • Beat C. Carolina, 49-15
  • Lost to #3 Georgia, 41-17
  • Marshall, Canceled
  • Beat Vanderbilt, 37-14
  • Lost to Kentucky, 24-10
  • Beat Missouri, 37-35
  • Lost Texas A&M, 26-23
  • Bye
  • Beat Tennessee, 27-24
  • Beat Ole Miss, 48-44
  • Lost to Florida, 35-31
  • Chattanooga
  • Clemson

Charlotte 49ers

Current record: 4-6 (3-3), 4th in C-USA – East

Kentucky Wildcats

Current record: 7-3 (5-3), 2nd in SEC – East, #20

  • Beat Cent Michigan, 35-20
  • Beat #25 Florida, 27-16
  • Beat Murray State, 48-10
  • Beat #14 Miss St, 28-7
  • Beat S Carolina, 24-10
  • Lost to Texas A&M, 20-14
  • Bye
  • Beat Vanderbilt, 14-7
  • Beat Missouri, 15-14
  • Lost to Georgia, 34-17
  • Lost to Tennessee, 24-7
  • MTSU
  • Louisville

The Vols’ future opponents

Missouri Tigers

Current record: 6-4 (2-4), 5th in SEC – East

Vanderbilt Commodores

Current record: 4-6 (1-5), 7th in SEC – East

0 0 votes
Article Rating
8 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Harley
Harley
5 years ago

6.1 up slightly with MO = 50%, Vandy = 60%… got us bowling, but it all depends on which Vol Team shows up down the stretch and if the scheme is a good match. I am betting on the Vols taking at least one and hoping for both!! Go Vols!!

0
Scott
Scott
5 years ago

I came to 5.9 this week. I’m hopeful but still wary. I want to see the kind of play like Saturday 2 weeks in a row. If they do that, we will he bowl eligible after this week and looking for a winning record against Vandy. I feel like we have yet to see the same team for consecutive games yet. They have been very up and down. But the O-line and defense give me hope that 7-5 is more than possible. I feel like a chemically unbalanced girlfriend. One minute I’m up the next I’m down.

0
Will Shelton
Admin
Will Shelton
5 years ago

I’m at 6.05. I’ve still got Mizzou at 45% because I don’t like the match-up. But the real question with both of these games is how confident are we the team that showed up on Saturday will show up again the next two weeks? Because if that happens, we handle Vandy. I’ve got that one at 60%, which I think is as high as I’ve had it since preseason.

0
Gavin Driskill
Gavin Driskill
5 years ago

5.83 here.

Mizzou just feels like a supremely bad matchup, so I’ve got them at 33%.

I’ve obviously watched more Vandy than most folks around here…their offense can be legit, it’s the defense that is a bit sketchy. They’re not as explosive as Mizzou, but I feel a bit like that one can be a shootout, too, and I’m not sure UT is designed to win those. 50%.

0
Pete
Pete
5 years ago

5.90 – 30% Mizzou (bad matchup); 60% Vandy. Love that we are playing our best football at the end of the season and have progressed each game (except Charlotte). I’d love to bowl and get the 15 practices. Would make a huge difference into 2019.

0
Isaac Bishop
Isaac Bishop
5 years ago

6.2

I bumped Mizzou a hair higher because of their bad passing defense.

0
HT
HT
5 years ago

Pre-season: 5.12 Post-WVU: 4.98 Post-ETSU: 4.84 Post-UTEP: 4.65 Post-Florida: 4.01 Post-Georgia: 4.20 Post-bye: 4.63 Post-Auburn: 5.58 Post-Alabama: 5.48 Post-South Carolina: 5.08 Post-Charlotte: 5.00 Now: 6.00 My remaining individual game confidence levels are now Mizzou 40 (up from 30), and Vandy 60. How I have picked each UT game in the Pick ‘Em contest versus actual results: West Virginia 40, Tennessee 14 (picked WVU for 14 points) Tennessee 59, ETSU 3 (picked Tennessee for 20) Tennessee 24, UTEP 0 (picked Tennessee for 18, two games canceled for weather) Florida 47, Tennessee 21 (picked Florida for 7) Georgia 38, Tennessee 12 (picked… Read more »

0
Caban
Caban
5 years ago

I’m not convinced that the Mizzou matchup is as bad as everyone seems to believe. Yes, on the surface it appears we’ll have difficulty keeping up with a balanced and explosive offense but the numbers look a little different on a deeper dive. Mizzou is mediocre against the pass according to some of the same deeper metrics that showed chinks in Kentucky’s armor. That’s not to say that they couldn’t just show up and have a day where everyone is in a rhythm, but there is an underlying inconsistency in everything they do. Frankly, I think Dooley has turned what… Read more »

0