Updated projected win totals for the Vols after Week 5

Will, Brad, and I all seem to be in agreement about what to draw from the Vols’ loss to Georgia this week, namely that it was a reminder of how far we still have to go but also positive progress. Meanwhile, some future opponents looked more beatable and some less.

My new expected win total after Week 5 is 4.9, up from 4.55 last week, but still down from 5.5 the week prior to that.

I have Alabama still at 5%, Auburn down to 25% (from 15%), Kentucky steady at 25%, South Carolina back to 40% (from 25% last week), Missouri steady at 40%, Vanderbilt down to 60% (from 50%), and Charlotte steady at 95%.

Use the form below to calculate yours and post it in the comments below the post.

Explanations are below, but here’s the updated chart for this week:

Tennessee Volunteers currently

  • Lost to #17 WVU*, 40-14
  • Beat ETSU, 59-3
  • Beat UTEP, 24-0
  • Lost to Florida, 47-21
  • Lost to #2 Georgia, 38-12
  • #9 Auburn, TBD
  • #1 Alabama, TBD
  • S Carolina, TBD
  • Charlotte, TBD
  • Kentucky, TBD
  • Missouri, TBD
  • Vanderbilt, TBD

The Vols’ past opponents

West Virginia Mountaineers

Current record: 4-0 (2-0), 1st in Big 12

  • Beat Tennessee*, 40-14
  • Beat YSU, 52-17
  • NC State, Canceled
  • Beat Kansas St, 35-6
  • Beat #25 Texas Tech, 42-34
  • Kansas, TBD
  • Iowa State, TBD
  • Baylor, 7:00 PM ET FOX Sports 1
  • Texas, TBD
  • #17 TCU, TBD
  • #15 Oklahoma St, TBD
  • #5 Oklahoma, 8:00 PM ET

East Tennessee State Buccaneers

Current record: 4-1 (3-0)

  • Beat Mars Hill, 28-7
  • Lost to Tennessee, 59-3
  • Beat VMI, 27-24
  • Beat Furman, 29-27
  • Beat Chattanooga, 17-14
  • Gardner-Webb, 3:30 PM ET ESPN+
  • The Citadel, 2:00 PM ET
  • Wofford, 1:30 PM ET ESPN+
  • W Carolina, 3:30 PM ET ESPN+
  • Mercer, 3:00 PM ET ESPN+
  • Samford, 1:00 PM ET

UTEP Miners

Current record: 0-5 (0-1), 2nd in C-USA – West

  • Lost to N Arizona, 30-10
  • Lost to UNLV, 52-24
  • Lost to Tennessee, 24-0
  • Lost to New Mexico St, 27-20
  • Lost to UTSA, 30-21
  • North Texas, 7:30 PM ET
  • LA Tech, 3:30 PM ET ESPN+
  • UAB, 7:30 PM ET ESPN+
  • Rice, 3:30 PM ET
  • MTSU, 3:00 PM ET ESPN+
  • W Kentucky, 7:30 PM ET
  • Southern Miss, 3:00 PM ET ESPN+

Florida Gators

Current record: 4-1 (2-1), 2nd in SEC – East

  • Beat Charleston So, 53-6
  • Lost to Kentucky, 27-16
  • Beat Colorado St, 48-10
  • Beat Tennessee, 47-21
  • Beat #14 Miss St, 13-6
  • #6 LSU, TBD
  • Vanderbilt, TBD
  • #2 Georgia*, 3:30 PM ET CBS
  • Missouri, TBD
  • S Carolina, TBD
  • Idaho, TBD
  • Florida State, TBD

Georgia Bulldogs

Current record: 5-0 (3-0), 1st in SEC – East

  • Beat Austin Peay, 45-0
  • Beat #24 S Carolina, 41-17
  • Beat MTSU, 49-7
  • Beat Missouri, 43-29
  • Beat Tennessee, 38-12
  • Vanderbilt, TBD
  • #6 LSU, TBD
  • Florida*, 3:30 PM ET CBS
  • Kentucky, TBD
  • #9 Auburn, TBD
  • UMass, TBD
  • Georgia Tech, TBD

Auburn Tigers

Current record: 4-1 (1-1), 2nd in SEC – West

  • Beat #6 Washington*, 21-16
  • Beat Alabama St, 63-9
  • Lost to #12 LSU, 22-21
  • Beat Arkansas, 34-3
  • Beat Southern Miss, 24-13
  • #14 Miss St, TBD
  • Tennessee, TBD
  • Ole Miss, TBD
  • #22 Texas A&M, TBD
  • #2 Georgia, TBD
  • Liberty, TBD
  • #1 Alabama, TBD

Alabama Crimson Tide

Current record: 5-0 (2-0), 1st in SEC – West

  • Beat Louisville*, 51-14
  • Beat Arkansas St, 57-7
  • Beat Ole Miss, 62-7
  • Beat #22 Texas A&M, 45-23
  • Beat Louisiana, 56-14
  • Arkansas, TBD
  • Missouri, TBD
  • Tennessee, TBD
  • #6 LSU, TBD
  • #14 Miss St, TBD
  • The Citadel, TBD
  • #9 Auburn, TBD

South Carolina Gamecocks

Current record: 2-2 (1-2), 3rd in SEC – East

  • Beat C. Carolina, 49-15
  • Lost to #3 Georgia, 41-17
  • Marshall, Canceled
  • Beat Vanderbilt, 37-14
  • Lost to Kentucky, 24-10
  • Missouri, TBD
  • #22 Texas A&M, TBD
  • Tennessee, TBD
  • Ole Miss, TBD
  • Florida, TBD
  • Chattanooga, TBD
  • #3 Clemson, TBD

Charlotte 49ers

Current record: 2-3 (1-1), 2nd in C-USA – East

  • Beat Fordham, 34-10
  • Lost to App St, 45-9
  • Beat Old Dominion, 28-25
  • Lost to UMass, 49-31
  • Lost to UAB, 28-7
  • W Kentucky, 3:30 PM ET ESPN+
  • MTSU, 3:00 PM ET
  • Southern Miss, 2:00 PM ET
  • Tennessee, TBD
  • Marshall, 2:30 PM ET ESPN+
  • FIU, 2:00 PM ET
  • FAU, 6:00 PM ET

Kentucky Wildcats

Current record: 5-0 (3-0), 1st in SEC – East

  • Beat Cent Michigan, 35-20
  • Beat #25 Florida, 27-16
  • Beat Murray State, 48-10
  • Beat #14 Miss St, 28-7
  • Beat S Carolina, 24-10
  • #22 Texas A&M, TBD
  • Vanderbilt, TBD
  • Missouri, TBD
  • #2 Georgia, TBD
  • Tennessee, TBD
  • MTSU, TBD
  • Louisville, TBD

Missouri Tigers

Current record: 3-1 (0-1), 5th in SEC – East

  • Beat UT Martin, 51-14
  • Beat Wyoming, 40-13
  • Beat Purdue, 40-37
  • Lost to #2 Georgia, 43-29
  • S Carolina, TBD
  • #1 Alabama, TBD
  • Memphis, TBD
  • Kentucky, TBD
  • Florida, TBD
  • Vanderbilt, TBD
  • Tennessee, TBD
  • Arkansas, 2:30 PM ET CBS

Vanderbilt Commodores

Current record: 3-2 (0-1), 5th in SEC – East

  • Beat MTSU, 35-7
  • Beat Nevada, 41-10
  • Lost to #8 Notre Dame, 22-17
  • Lost to S Carolina, 37-14
  • Beat Tennessee St, 31-27
  • #2 Georgia, TBD
  • Florida, TBD
  • Kentucky, TBD
  • Arkansas, TBD
  • Missouri, TBD
  • Ole Miss, TBD
  • Tennessee, TBD

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Randy HoltzclawMariettavolHarleyWill SheltonHT Recent comment authors
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HT
Member
HT

Pre-season: 5.12
Post-WVU: 4.98
Post-ETSU: 4.84
Post-UTEP: 4.65
Post-Florida: 4.01
Now: 4.20

Will Shelton
Admin

I’m at 5 even now. I think I started at 6.2, was down to 4.25 last week

Harley
Member
Harley

4.2 last week… now 4.66… marginal improvement… need to see how we do out of the bye week and teeth of the schedule. Some encouragement from play at Georgia. Go Vols!

Mariettavol
Member
Mariettavol

Sitting at 5.21 this week

Randy Holtzclaw
Admin

Last week I was at 2.95
This week 4.66
As Coach Pruitt said this team didn’t give up, they showed they have some fight to them. Counting Charlotte as a win, South Carolina and Vandy are getting closer to be a toss up.

Mariettavol
Member
Mariettavol

Just for fun I used ESPN fpi percentages and they have us at 4.19 wins