Updated projected win totals for the Vols after Week 6

The Vols were off this past weekend, but their past and future opponents were not, so let’s take a look at how those results might have impacted our expectations for the back half of the season for Tennessee.

My new expected win total:

  • This week: 5.0
  • Last week: 4.9
  • After Week 4: 4.55
  • After Week 3: 5.5

I have Alabama steady at 5%, Auburn down to 30%, Kentucky down to 30%, South Carolina and Missouri steady at 40%, Vanderbilt steady at 60%, and Charlotte steady at 95%.

Use the form below to calculate yours and post it in the comments below the post.

Explanations are below, but here’s the updated chart for this week:

Tennessee Volunteers currently

  • Lost to #17 WVU*, 40-14
  • Beat ETSU, 59-3
  • Beat UTEP, 24-0
  • Lost to Florida, 47-21
  • Lost to #2 Georgia, 38-12
  • #21 Auburn, 12:00 PM SECN
  • #1 Alabama, TBD
  • S Carolina, TBD
  • Charlotte, TBD
  • Kentucky, TBD
  • Missouri, TBD
  • Vanderbilt, TBD

The Vols’ past opponents

West Virginia Mountaineers

Current record: 5-0 (3-0), 1st in Big 12, #6

  • Beat Tennessee*, 40-14
  • Beat YSU, 52-17
  • NC State, Canceled
  • Beat Kansas St, 35-6
  • Beat #25 Texas Tech, 42-34
  • Beat Kansas, 38-22
  • Iowa State, TBD
  • Baylor, 7:00 PM ET FOX Sports 1
  • Texas, TBD
  • #17 TCU, TBD
  • #15 Oklahoma St, TBD
  • #5 Oklahoma, 8:00 PM ET

East Tennessee State Buccaneers

Current record: 5-1 (3-0)

  • Beat Mars Hill, 28-7
  • Lost to Tennessee, 59-3
  • Beat VMI, 27-24
  • Beat Furman, 29-27
  • Beat Chattanooga, 17-14
  • Beat Gardner-Webb, 45-0
  • The Citadel, 2:00 PM ET
  • Wofford, 1:30 PM ET ESPN+
  • W Carolina, 3:30 PM ET ESPN+
  • Mercer, 3:00 PM ET ESPN+
  • Samford, 1:00 PM ET

UTEP Miners

Current record: 0-6 (0-2), 6th in C-USA – West

  • Lost to N Arizona, 30-10
  • Lost to UNLV, 52-24
  • Lost to Tennessee, 24-0
  • Lost to New Mexico St, 27-20
  • Lost to UTSA, 30-21
  • Lost North Texas, 27-24
  • LA Tech, 3:30 PM ET ESPN+
  • UAB, 7:30 PM ET ESPN+
  • Rice, 3:30 PM ET
  • MTSU, 3:00 PM ET ESPN+
  • W Kentucky, 7:30 PM ET
  • Southern Miss, 3:00 PM ET ESPN+

Florida Gators

Current record: 5-1 (3-1), 2nd in SEC – East, #14

  • Beat Charleston So, 53-6
  • Lost to Kentucky, 27-16
  • Beat Colorado St, 48-10
  • Beat Tennessee, 47-21
  • Beat #14 Miss St, 13-6
  • Beat #5 LSU, 27-19
  • Vanderbilt, TBD
  • #2 Georgia*, 3:30 PM ET CBS
  • Missouri, TBD
  • S Carolina, TBD
  • Idaho, TBD
  • Florida State, TBD

Georgia Bulldogs

Current record: 6-0 (4-0), 1st in SEC – East, #2

  • Beat Austin Peay, 45-0
  • Beat #24 S Carolina, 41-17
  • Beat MTSU, 49-7
  • Beat Missouri, 43-29
  • Beat Tennessee, 38-12
  • Beat Vanderbilt, 41-13
  • #6 LSU, TBD
  • Florida*, 3:30 PM ET CBS
  • Kentucky, TBD
  • #9 Auburn, TBD
  • UMass, TBD
  • Georgia Tech, TBD

The Vols’ future opponents

Auburn Tigers

Current record: 4-2 (1-2), 4th in SEC – West, #21

  • Beat #6 Washington*, 21-16
  • Beat Alabama St, 63-9
  • Lost to #12 LSU, 22-21
  • Beat Arkansas, 34-3
  • Beat Southern Miss, 24-13
  • Lost to Miss St, 23-9
  • Tennessee, TBD
  • Ole Miss, TBD
  • Texas A&M, TBD
  • Georgia, TBD
  • Liberty, TBD
  • Alabama, TBD

Alabama Crimson Tide

Current record: 6-0 (3-0), 1st in SEC – West, #1

  • Beat Louisville*, 51-14
  • Beat Arkansas St, 57-7
  • Beat Ole Miss, 62-7
  • Beat #22 Texas A&M, 45-23
  • Beat Louisiana, 56-14
  • Beat Arkansas, 65-31
  • Missouri, TBD
  • Tennessee, TBD
  • LSU, TBD
  • Miss St, TBD
  • The Citadel, TBD
  • Auburn, TBD

South Carolina Gamecocks

Current record: 3-2 (2-2), 4th in SEC – East

  • Beat C. Carolina, 49-15
  • Lost to #3 Georgia, 41-17
  • Marshall, Canceled
  • Beat Vanderbilt, 37-14
  • Lost to Kentucky, 24-10
  • Beat Missouri, 37-35
  • Texas A&M, TBD
  • Tennessee, TBD
  • Ole Miss, TBD
  • Florida, TBD
  • Chattanooga, TBD
  • Clemson, TBD

Charlotte 49ers

Current record: 2-3 (1-1), 2nd in C-USA – East

  • Beat Fordham, 34-10
  • Lost to App St, 45-9
  • Beat Old Dominion, 28-25
  • Lost to UMass, 49-31
  • Lost to UAB, 28-7
  • W Kentucky, 3:30 PM ET ESPN+
  • MTSU, 3:00 PM ET
  • Southern Miss, 2:00 PM ET
  • Tennessee, TBD
  • Marshall, 2:30 PM ET ESPN+
  • FIU, 2:00 PM ET
  • FAU, 6:00 PM ET

Kentucky Wildcats

Current record: 5-1 (3-1), 2nd in SEC – East, #18

  • Beat Cent Michigan, 35-20
  • Beat #25 Florida, 27-16
  • Beat Murray State, 48-10
  • Beat #14 Miss St, 28-7
  • Beat S Carolina, 24-10
  • Lost to Texas A&M, 20-14
  • Vanderbilt, TBD
  • Missouri, TBD
  • Georgia, TBD
  • Tennessee, TBD
  • MTSU, TBD
  • Louisville, TBD

Missouri Tigers

Current record: 3-2 (0-2), 5th in SEC – East

  • Beat UT Martin, 51-14
  • Beat Wyoming, 40-13
  • Beat Purdue, 40-37
  • Lost to #2 Georgia, 43-29
  • Lost to South Carolina, 37-35
  • Alabama, TBD
  • Memphis, TBD
  • Kentucky, TBD
  • Florida, TBD
  • Vanderbilt, TBD
  • Tennessee, TBD
  • Arkansas, 2:30 PM ET CBS

Vanderbilt Commodores

Current record: 3-3 (0-2), 5th in SEC – East

  • Beat MTSU, 35-7
  • Beat Nevada, 41-10
  • Lost to #8 Notre Dame, 22-17
  • Lost to S Carolina, 37-14
  • Beat Tennessee St, 31-27
  • Lost to Georgia, 41-13
  • Florida, TBD
  • Kentucky, TBD
  • Arkansas, TBD
  • Missouri, TBD
  • Ole Miss, TBD
  • Tennessee, TBD

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Pete
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Pete

The math says 4.58 so let’s round up to 5-7. After watching Sakerlina and Missouri battle, I think less of each – although I don’t think we could score 37 points against any SEC team in 8 quarters… Auburn looks less imposing than Georgia or Bama – not that I have us favored but it looks less like a 30 pt blowout now. Even Kentucky looks human. Vandy looks beatable after they fared worse against UGA than we did. My heart says the guys will be rewarded for fighting hard enough to elicit more tears from CJP and we pull… Read more »

Will Shelton
Admin

I’m at 4.95, down just a hair from 5.00 last week.

Scott
Member
Scott

I’m at 5.05. I am less optimistic than Pete and Joel about getting to 6 wins. I still see us at 4-5 but agree that there are enough remaining games that could be a toss up to get us to 6. Maybe it’s the last 10 years that makes me too gun shy to get optimistic, but I’m still saying we drop too many toss ups to get there.

Scott
Member
Scott

that’s 4-5 wins, not 4-5 record.

Randy Holtzclaw
Admin

Up to 5.16 from 4.65 last week

Harley
Member
Harley

5.00 this week, up from 4.66… still need to see some consistency in improvement to take to the next level. Injuries with the lack of depth will be a big risk going forward. Go Vols!!

HT
Member
HT

Pre-season: 5.12
Post-WVU: 4.98
Post-ETSU: 4.84
Post-UTEP: 4.65
Post-Florida: 4.01
Post-Georgia: 4.20
Now: 4.63

Amazing what a bye week can do for your confidence! I know I didn’t really alter my Auburn expectations based on their poor showing, so it wasn’t that. It may have just been “out of sight, out of mind” for all of our glaring problems. Kentucky, South Carolina, and Vanderbilt all look much more beatable to me now.