Tennessee Game-by-Game & Record Predictions with Win Probability

Earlier this month we showed you Tennessee’s projected record using win probability with ESPN’s FPI and SB Nation’s S&P+. Add up the percentage chance they give the Vols to win each game, and you’ll get their projection for Tennessee’s regular season win total. Then our staff made their picks using win probability, and we gave you a chance to do the same. We’ve added up all the responses:  here are your projections for the Vols this year:

Opponent Win Probability
vs Georgia Tech 64.92
Indiana State 98.55
at Florida 46.78
UMass 98.24
Georgia 51.33
South Carolina 68.63
at Alabama 15.31
at Kentucky 68.63
Southern Miss 89.98
at Missouri 73.43
LSU 43.63
Vanderbilt 74.37
WINS 7.94

Our reader projection is in near-full agreement with ESPN’s FPI projection of 7.91, and is an unsurprising consensus expectation in taking the pulse of the fanbase. 8-4 appears to be this year’s bar with 7-5 a hair more likely than 9-3, but neither should shock.

The game-by-game percentages are interesting in a couple of places. Our readers give the Vols a 65% chance on Monday night, but there’s not much difference in how fans view this game and the South Carolina & Kentucky contests later in the year. The odds go just above 50% against Georgia and just below at Florida, and I wonder how much home field advantage has to do with that. And while most don’t give the Vols a significant chance at Alabama, most do with LSU. Eight of Tennessee’s 12 games fall somewhere between 44-74% in our win probability. That’s a lot of potentially close calls, and should make for another exciting season.

You can still use our form to insert your own percentages and find your own projection for Tennessee’s win total.

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Joel HollingsworthWill SheltonAndrew Cooper Recent comment authors
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Andrew Cooper
Andrew Cooper

I’m not sure I understand the love people are giving Florida. I think Florida has some pretty serious fundamental problems going on right now. Their recruiting the last couple of years while not bad hasn’t been stellar. A large number of their best recruits from 2015 on aren’t with the program anymore. A fair amount of talent for them graduated and/or left for the NFL last year. While the guys behind them are fairly good they are paper thin in terms of talent at a number of positions. I still haven’t seen any evidence that they have their quarterback situation… Read more »