We have three weeks’ worth of 2018 data so far, so while we’re creeping up on looking exclusively at what teams have done so far this year, we still need to be a bit wary of that data and to mitigate those concerns with appropriate amounts of last year’s leftovers and this year’s gut.
So let’s get to it. First, the predictions, and below them, the details:
Predictions
Tennessee 23, Florida 22
Tennessee rushing yards: 210
Florida rushing yards: 140
Tennessee passing yards: 160
Florida passing yards: 220
Tennessee rushing
Tennessee is averaging 221.3 rushing yards per game so far in 2018. That number is probably a little inflated due to the competition, even when you include West Virginia, who’s not known for its defense.
Florida is giving up 198.3 rushing yards per game. Their season-long average in 2017 was better — 153.9 yards per game. This season, the Gators held Colorado State to 70 rushing yards, but gave up 222 to Charleston Southern, a number so surprising I felt compelled to check it three times and still don’t believe it’s right.
Tennessee got 345 rushing yards against UTEP (averaging 289), 190 against ETSU (FCS), and 129 against West Virginia (averaging 172).
Based on all of that, my guess for rushing yards for Tennessee against Florida is 210.
Florida rushing
The Tennessee defense is allowing 112.7 rushing yards per game so far this season, while the Florida run game is averaging 185.0 yards per game. Last year, those numbers were 251.3 and 156.4, significantly worse for Tennessee, and worse for Florida.
So far, the Vols have held teams to far below their season averages on the ground. West Virginia is averaging 203.5 rushing yards per game, and they put up 118 against the Vols. Go ahead and chalk that up to a passing game that didn’t need help from the running backs, but UTEP was averaging 154 and got only 95 against the Vols in Neyland.
Based on all of that, I’m guessing the Gators will get maybe 140 yards rushing against Tennessee.
Tennessee passing
This season, Tennessee is averaging 187.7 passing yards per game, and Florida is allowing 131.3. That’s better than last year for Tennessee (173.7) and much better for Florida (195.4).
If you put more weight on this year’s numbers, this will be the best pass defense the Vols have played so far this season. Tennessee put up 172 against West Virginia, who’s allowing 164.5 passing yards per game so far this season.
My guess, then, is that Tennessee will end up with somewhere around 160 passing yards this weekend.
Florida passing
After a disastrous start, the Tennessee pass defense is now allowing a better 179.0 passing yards per game. After allowing 429 to West Virginia (which is averaging 382.5), the Vols allowed only 69 to ETSU and 39 to UTEP, the latter of which is averaging 96.3.
Florida is averaging 197.3 passing yards per game so far this season, a bit better than the 179.5 they averaged in 2017.
Based on all of that, my expectation for the Vols’ passing defense in this game is that they’ll likely give up somewhere around 220 passing yards to Florida.
Tennessee scoring
After three games this season, the Vols are averaging 32.3 points per game. Their average last season was 19.8.
The Gators are currently allowing only 14.3 points per game this season, about half of what they managed last year.
The Vols scored only 14 points against West Virginia, then racked up 59 against ETSU before putting up 24 against UTEP. The averages for those teams so far this year are 15.5, 30, and 35.3. Meanwhile, Florida held Charleston Southern to 6 and Colorado State to 10, but gave up 27 to Kentucky.
I’m uncomfortable with the fact that Tennessee scored only 14 on the Mountaineers and 24 on UTEP, but there were more points on the table against the Miners, and I’m blaming first-game jitters and adjustments for the game against the Mountaineers. I’m also thinking that if Kentucky can get 27 on the Gators in the Swamp, we can get at least 23 in Neyland. So, I first narrowed it down to somewhere between 18 and 24, and I settled on 23 because woo.
Florida scoring
Tennessee is allowing 14.3 points per game so far in 2018, less than half of its 2017 number of 29.1. This year’s number has ETSU (3) and UTEP (0) in it, but it also has West Virginia (40) included, so it’s not just the competition.
Florida’s offense is averaging 39.0 points per game this year after averaging only 22.1 all of last year. They scored 53 against Charleston Southern and 48 against Colorado State, but only 16 against Kentucky.
With that, I’m setting the expectation for Florida’s points against the Vols at 22.
Comparison of predictions to other models and Vegas
So, I’m going with Vols 23, Gators 22.
Bill Connelly’s S&P+ is in line with my prediction, basically characterizing it as a toss-up. Its projected score is Florida 28.5, Tennessee 28.2, a 50.6% chance of winning for the Gators.
The Vegas spread, however, favors Florida by between 4.5 and 5, with an over/under of 46.5-47, which converts to something like Florida 26, Tennessee 21.
ESPN’s FPI is also closer to Vegas, giving the Vols only a 29.1% chance of winning.
34-17 Vols is my prediction.
Whoa, you are feeling good!
You should do a statsy review of your statsy previews sometime so I know how much stock to put in these 🙂
On my list. Short answer is this: When you just take the numbers and don’t adjust them for anything, it was 56.6% against the spread last year from Week 6 (when I started keeping track of every game with a spread) through bowl season. It was under 50% only once during that span. It does best (66.3%) on games with spreads of 6.5 or smaller and for which the machine has above a certain level of confidence that I am keeping to myself for now. 🙂 I don’t have enough early season data yet to know whether it’s similarly reliable… Read more »