Tennessee vs North Carolina Preview

It’s been six years since Tennessee played a game like this, seven since they played one in Knoxville. Let’s go.

Relax about the MiG.

RPI Forecast gives Tennessee an 88.9% chance to finish with 19 or more regular season wins. Their projections shouldn’t be taken as gospel today, but become more reliable every night. A 19-11 finish projects to an RPI of 36 headed to the SEC Tournament. That dances.

Tennessee can already check the boxes next to strength of schedule, quality wins, and road/neutral wins. The SEC is first in conference RPI, has eight teams in Ken Pomeroy’s Top 50 and the entire league in the Top 85. Plus seven SEC schools in the December 9 Bracket Matrix update, where the Vols are a five seed.

Relax. Almost every night of conference play will provide an opportunity. This one isn’t about March. Like Villanova, this is about Tennessee’s ceiling.

The Defending Champs

North Carolina was 27-7 heading to March, fought off a stiff challenge from Arkansas in the second round, then beat Kentucky by two in the Elite Eight and Oregon by one in the Final Four. It wasn’t easy, but the Tar Heels cut down the nets by beating Gonzaga in the title game. Justin Jackson and Tony Bradley became first round draft picks, but plenty of talent returns; several Tar Heels have made the most of expanded minutes.

That’s especially true for Luke Maye. He averages a double-double at 19.9 points and 10.5 rebounds. Joel Berry, who did not play against the Vols last season, is second on the team in scoring at 16.0 points per game. Kenny Williams adds 13.4 points and 55% shooting from the arc, and Theo Pinson averages 9.4 points and 4.4 assists per game. Those four do the majority of the heavy lifting for Carolina, all averaging between 28-32 minutes per game.

They’ll come to Knoxville 9-1 and no fan of close games. The lone blemish came via #4 Michigan State: the Tar Heels shot 24.6% from the floor and 1-of-18 from the arc in a 63-45 loss in the Phil Knight tournament. In every other game, North Carolina has shot better than 47% and scored at least 85 points.

That includes a 19-point win over Arkansas (#30 KenPom) and a 15-point win over Michigan (#36 KenPom). In their only true road game before this weekend, Carolina beat Stanford (#110 KenPom) by 24.

Like us, with more talent

Last year Tennessee led by 15 in the first half before an avalanche of offensive rebounds buried them in the second. Tony Bradley had seven of those in 20 minutes; this time around the match-up should be more even.

It’s remarkable how similar the Vols and Tar Heels have been in the early going, having both faced enough competition to feel good about the sample size:

• North Carolina is 34th in field goal percentage (49.5%) and 59th in field goal percentage defense (40.1%). Tennessee shoots 45.2% from the floor, leads the nation in assist percentage, and is 30th in field goal percentage defense (38.3%).
• North Carolina is 42nd in three-point percentage (39.9%). Tennessee is 21st (41.2%). But neither team lives by the three:  UNC is 258th nationally in three-pointers attempted, UT 305th.
• North Carolina plays through Luke Maye (6’8″, 240 lbs). Tennessee plays through Grant Williams (6’7″, 241 lbs).
• These are two of the very best teams in the nation at defending inside the arc. North Carolina is 16th in two-point field goal percentage defense (41.6%), 32nd in blocked shots, and (like Villanova) does a great job defending without fouling: the Tar Heels are 21st nationally in opponent free throw attempts. The Vols are 7th in two-point field goal percentage defense (40.4%), and tied with Carolina for 32nd in blocked shots.
• North Carolina is 27th in offensive rebounding percentage (36.6%). Tennessee is 45th (35.9%).
• North Carolina’s only loss is to the number two team in KenPom. Tennessee’s only loss is to number one.

The biggest difference between us is tempo:  Carolina plays the 15th-fastest pace in college basketball. Tennessee isn’t slow at 117th, but has played a diverse set of opponents without being overly interested in dictating a faster pace. The Vols beat Lipscomb (12th in tempo) and Georgia Tech (343rd in tempo) in their last two games. Tennessee plays a much more balanced rotation, with seven players getting between 20-27 minutes. In their history of Roy Williams vs Rick Barnes, SB Nation’s Tar Heel Blog points out when Barnes’ teams have won, they usually beat Carolina at their own game:  crash the boards and score a bunch of points.

I expect the Vols to have an opportunity to get this thing done; Villanova looks like the best team in the country by a healthy margin right now, and Tennessee certainly had their moments then. North Carolina is certainly more talented, but Thompson-Boling will present an environment this version of the Tar Heels hasn’t seen just yet. It may simply happen that we get beat by a more talented team. But it may simply happen that the environment is enough to push a good Tennessee team to victory over a great opponent. The Vols also can’t let the atmosphere and the opportunity get them out of their own element; most of this roster knows it should have won this game last year, which should help in that department.

Sagarin’s predictor at RPI Forecast gives the Vols a 42% chance to win; ESPN’s BPI gives the Vols a 48% chance. We’ve come a long way in a short time. If Tennessee continues to share the basketball well on offense and defend at a high level on the other end, the Vols can get this done.

Sunday, 3:00 PM ET, ESPN. Go Vols.